XRP News Today: Can BlackRock Spark a Breakout With iShares XRP Trust? BTC Dips

ETF Uncertainty Keeps XRP Traders on Edge

XRP’s fate may hinge on October—ETF approval could trigger a historic rally, but delays loom. The token succumbed to profit-taking on Wednesday, August 27, as sentiment toward the timing of a spot ETF approval continued to see-saw.

Market optimism about an XRP-spot ETF approval triggered a breakout above $3 on Tuesday, August 26. Hopes for a pre-October final deadline launch intensified after ETF issuers submitted S-1 amendments, including 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary, CoinShares, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and WisdomTree. The S-1 amendments fueled speculation that ETF issuers had dialogue with the SEC, leading to the submissions.

However, any approvals remain unlikely until the SEC rolls out its standardized crypto ETF framework. Given that the spot XRP ETFs have final deadlines ranging from October 18 to October 25, the agency could take time to introduce the framework. While crypto experts expect approvals, potential delays until October continue to leave XRP in limbo.

Notably, the token has traded in a tight range of $2.7844 – $3.1281 since the SEC delayed its decisions on several XRP-spot ETFs on Monday, August 18.

BlackRock’s Absence Raises Questions for the Bulls

One notable absentee from the issuer list for XRP-spot ETFs is BlackRock. BlackRock met with the SEC Crypto Task Force in May to discuss ETF approval standards. Since then, Cboe, Nasdaq, and NYSE have filed 19b-4s, requesting rule changes to permit Commodity-Based Trust Shares to list under a standardized framework.

The exchanges’ requests for the rule changes put XRP in the spotlight. On August 22, the US Court of Appeals approved Ripple and the SEC’s Joint Stipulation of Dismissal filing.

The approval meant that Judge Analisa Torres’ Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling stands. Judge Torres ruled that the programmatic sale of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test. This ruling meant that XRP is a non-security in secondary sales, categorizing XRP-spot ETFs as Commodity-Based Trust Shares.

The SEC’s approval and rollout of a standardized crypto ETF framework could be a green light for BlackRock to file for an iShares XRP Trust.

Why BlackRock Could Be the Game-Changer

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) dominate the crypto-spot ETF market. IBIT has reported total net inflows of $58.17 billion since launch. For context, the second-largest BTC-spot ETF, the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), has seen total net inflows of $11.81 billion since launch.

In summary, the introduction of a standardized crypto ETF framework and BlackRock applying for an iShares XRP Trust could be the next key price catalysts.

XRP Price Outlook: Scenarios for Bulls and Bears

Can XRP target its $3.6606 all-time high? XRP fell 1.48% on Wednesday, August 27, partially reversing Tuesday’s 5.38% rally to close at $2.9698. The token underperformed the broader market, which dropped 0.62% to a total crypto market cap of $3.8 trillion.

In the near-term, XRP’s price outlook hinges on several key catalysts, including:

• XRP-spot ETF news.
• XRP Treasury Reserve Asset adoption.
• Ripple’s US-chartered bank license application.
• SWIFT-related updates.
• Legislative developments.

Potential scenarios:

• Bearish Scenario: Legislative setbacks, weak Treasury Reserve Asset adoption, OCC declines Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, lawmakers protect SWIFT, or the SEC disapproves XRP-spot ETFs. These factors could drag XRP toward its August 3 low of $2.7254.
• Bullish Scenario: XRP-spot ETF approvals, OCC approves US-chartered bank license, increasing XRP Treasury Reserve Asset adoption, bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, or SWIFT loses share of global remittance business to Ripple. These factors could send XRP above its record high of $3.6606 (Binance Exchange), paving the way to $5.

October could be XRP’s make-or-break month, likely determining whether XRP breaks out or stalls under regulatory uncertainty. Meanwhile, global macroeconomic developments and Bitcoin (BTC) price trends will influence investor sentiment.

Explore our full XRP forecast here for key breakout zones and timing insights.

Bitcoin Wobbles as Fed Clouds Rate-Cut Hopes

While XRP dropped on spot ETF delays, Bitcoin (BTC) came under selling pressure amid uncertainty over the Fed’s interest rate path.

On Wednesday, August 27, New York Fed President John Williams discussed the importance of upcoming US economic data on the timing of a rate cut, stating:

“Every meeting is, from my perspective, live. Risks are more in balance. We are going to just have to see how the data play out.”

The US Personal Income and Outlays Report will provide the Fed with insights into spending and inflation on Friday, August 29. The US Jobs Report, due on September 5, will also be crucial given the Fed’s concerns about a cooling labor market.

Despite the uncertainty, markets remain hopeful. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a September Fed rate cut have increased from 61.9% on July 25 to 88.7% on August 27.

BTC-Spot ETFs Struggle Despite Inflow Streak

Market optimism for a September Fed rate cut has lifted demand for US BTC-spot ETFs, crucial for the supply-demand balance.

BTC-spot ETF issuers reported total net inflows of $88.1 million on Tuesday, August 26. On Wednesday, August 27, the US BTC-spot ETF market could extend its inflow streak to three sessions. Excluding BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust flows, total inflows reached $30.5 million. According to Farside Investors, key flows included:

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $14.7 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO), and Franklin Bitcoin ETF (EZBC) saw total net inflows of $18.8 million.
• Meanwhile, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) reported net outflows of $3 million.

Despite a potential three-day inflow streak, the US BTC-spot ETF market has seen total net outflows of $852.3 million, leaving BTC trading below its record high of $123,731 (August 14).

BTC Price Outlook: US Data, the Fed, and Spot ETFs in Focus

BTC declined 0.46% on Wednesday, August 27, partially reversing Tuesday’s 1.45% gain to close at $111,270. Notably, BTC fell short of the crucial $115,000 mark for the fourth consecutive session.

Looking ahead, several key events may influence the near-term price trajectory. These include:

• US Economic data: GDP, jobless claims, and the Personal Income and Outlays Report.
• Fed speakers: hawkish or dovish.
• Legislative developments on Capitol Hill.
• BTC-spot ETF flows.

Potential scenarios:

• Bearish Scenario: Legislative setbacks, rising stagflation risks, hawkish Fed cues, or ETF outflows. A combination of these may push BTC toward the psychological $100,000 support level.
• Bullish Scenario: Bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, easing stagflation risks, dovish Fed rhetoric, and ETF inflows. In this case, BTC could target the record high of $123,731.

Key Market Drivers: Data, Regulation, and ETF Flows

Traders should closely monitor the following key events to determine whether XRP and BTC rebound:

• XRP-spot ETF headlines.
• Legislative developments: The CLARITY Act.
• US economic data: Supports rate cuts or tempers bets on a Fed pivot.
• ETF market flows: Flow trends crucial for BTC’s supply-demand balance.

See where analysts expect XRP and BTC to head as legal and political risks evolve.