The SEC vs. Ripple case continues to dominate the headlines as investors await a refiling of the request for an indicative ruling on settlement terms. XRP advanced 1.44% on Saturday, May 24, partially reversing Friday’s 5.57% loss to close at $2.3294.
On May 15, Judge Torres denied the SEC’s request for an indicative ruling on lifting the injunction prohibiting XRP sales to institutional investors and lowering the $125 million penalty. The ruling shook the XRP community, driving the token from $2.6507 to a post-ruling low of $2.2839 on May 19.
The SEC’s silence since Judge Torres’ ruling fueled legal uncertainty, especially around its appeal strategy. Withdrawing the appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling likely hinges on Judge Torres granting the settlement and Ripple dropping its cross-appeal.
However, pro-crypto lawyers and former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel downplayed the SEC’s silence. Marc Fagel, responding to a question on why the SEC had yet to submit a corrected filing, stated:
“Because it wasn’t just ‘procedural inaccuracies’. There was a significant substantive problem with their approach, and the judge made it clear the bar they must clear is a lot higher than they’d claimed.”
Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan echoed Fagel’s view, commenting:
“Marc Fagel is correct. A new filing in SEC v Ripple was never going to be quick. It is not just that the parties tried to avoid the correct rule but the very high bar to satisfy under the correct rule (showing exceptional circumstances) to have the fine reduced & dissolve the injunction.”
Easing concerns about the absence of a second filing likely contributed to Saturday’s gains and continued fueling optimism toward an XRP-spot ETF market. Significantly, approval of XRP-spot ETF applications is likely contingent on a resolution to the Ripple case.
According to Polymarket, the chances of the SEC approving an XRP-spot ETF by December 2025 stand at 83%, up from 80% on May 15 but down from 87% on March 23.
This week, the SEC delayed several XRP-spot ETF reviews, including applications from Bitwise Invest and CoinShares, after delaying reviews of applications from Grayscale and Franklin Templeton earlier in May.
However, the ETF community expected the SEC to delay the reviews, with final approvals anticipated in October.
Bloomberg Intelligence ETF Analyst James Seyffart recently commented on the likely timing of an approval:
“Delays on spot crypto ETFs are expected. A bunch of XRP ETPs have dates in next few days. If we’re gonna see early approvals from the SEC on any of these assets — i wouldn’t expect to see them until late June or early July at absolute earliest. More likely to be in early 4Q.”
A green light for US XRP-spot ETFs could fuel institutional demand for XRP and price gains. Since ETF issuers launched BTC-spot ETFs, bitcoin (BTC) has climbed 131%, driven by total net inflows of $44,499 million. Comparable momentum for XRP could lift the token to a record high of $3, excluding downward pressure from unresolved legal risks.
XRP’s near-term path hinges on Ripple case-related updates and XRP-spot ETF-related news.
Crucially, if the SEC drops its appeal, XRP could retarget its all-time high of $3.5505, with ETF approval potentially fueling a rally toward $5. However, if the court rejects the SEC’s settlement request for a second time, XRP could drop to $1.50.
Despite Friday’s sell-off, XRP continues trading above the 50-day and the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), signaling bullish momentum.
A breakout above the May 24 high of $2.4784 could signal a move toward $2.5 and the May 12 high of $2.6553. A sustained move through $2.6553 could pave the way to $3 and the 2025 high of $3.3999.
On the downside, a break below the 50-day EMA could expose the 200-day EMA and the $1.9299 support level.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 49.6, suggesting XRP has room to fall below the 200-day EMA before entering oversold territory (RSI< 30).
XRP remains highly sensitive to legal outcomes and broader external catalysts. The token previously climbed to $3.3999 on Ripple case optimism and pro-crypto commentary from Donald Trump.
Nevertheless, macro themes—such as trade tensions and recession risks—continue influencing overall risk sentiment. Looking ahead, the SEC’s posture, Ripple’s legal strategy, regulatory clarity, and ETF review outcomes will remain key drivers of XRP’s performance.
Unlock expert XRP insights here before the next move.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.