XRP News Today: Judge Denies SEC Settlement, XRP Tumbles; BTC Holds Above $100k

SEC vs. Ripple: Judge Denies Motion to Settle

The SEC vs. Ripple case took a significant turn on Thursday, May 15, crashing XRP to $2.3551. Judge Analisa Torres denied the SEC and Ripple’s motion for an indicative ruling on lifting the injunction prohibiting XRP sales to institutional investors. She also rejected the request to reduce the $125 million penalty, stating:

“If jurisdiction was restored to this Court, the Court would deny the parties’ motion as procedurally improper.”

Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan outlined the settlement process that follows the court ruling:

The next step is for the SEC and Ripple to file a procedurally correct joint motion. If an indicative ruling is secured, the parties will appeal to the Court of Appeals for a limited remand. The goal would be to seek relief, agreed upon by both parties, from Judge Torres. Once the limited remand is granted, motions would be filed to dismiss the appeal and cross-appeal, ultimately closing the case.

Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty remarked on the court ruling, stating:

“Nothing in today’s order changes Ripple’s wins (i.e., XRP is not a security, etc). This is about procedural concerns with the dismissal of Ripple’s cross-appeal. Ripple and the SEC are fully in agreement to resolve this case and will revisit this issue with the Court, together.”

XRP-Spot ETF Approval Chances Rise

Despite the court ruling, the chances of the SEC approving an XRP-spot ETF within 2025 remain high. According to Polymarket, the odds rose from 80% on May 15 to 81% on May 16, well above 66% on April 22. However, the court’s ruling could delay the approval of several XRP-spot ETFs, with interim deadlines next week.

Further delays in the Ripple case raise the likelihood that the SEC will defer its decision on pending XRP-spot ETF applications until their final deadlines, in October 2025. Market consensus suggests that the SEC will delay approving the ETFs until the courts dismiss the appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.

The potential delay in ETF approvals could impact near-term XRP demand, potentially a price drag. Despite this, XRP held above $2, reflecting investor optimism the SEC will drop its appeal and approve spot ETF applications.

XRP Price Outlook: Focus on Legal Developments

XRP tumbled 6.5% on Thursday, May 15, following Wednesday’s 1.22% loss, closing at $2.3865. The token underperformed the broader crypto market, which fell 0.87% to a total crypto market cap of $3.26 trillion.

XRP’s near-term price outlook depends on future court rulings, XRP-spot ETF news, and macroeconomic developments like trade updates.

Technical support sits at $2.3. A break above the May 12 high of $2.6553 could signal a move toward $3.00, with the potential to reach the record high of $3.5505.

For a deeper dive, see our full XRP forecast here.

Bitcoin Holds Above $100,000

Bitcoin (BTC) bucked the broader market trend, staying strong despite Ripple’s legal woes. Easing trade tensions and sustained demand for BTC-spot ETFs have been crucial drivers. Positive developments, such as the potential signing of trade agreements and tariff reductions, boosted investor confidence in risk assets.

Since President Trump paused tariffs on April 9, BTC surged 39% while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 25%. Shifting sentiment toward the global trade war has also driven demand for US BTC-spot ETFs, which saw inflows totaling $5.86 billion during this period.

However, BTC’s failure to retest its all-time high of $109,312 may test market sentiment. Notably, the US BTC-spot ETF market could experience significant outflows on May 15. According to Farside Investors:

• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported net outflows of $132 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net outflows of $123.7 million.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) had net outflows of $39.1 million.

Excluding pending flow data for BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total outflows of $294.8 million.

BTC Price Outlook: Watch Washington, US data, and Flows

BTC advanced 0.24% on May 15, recovering from Wednesday’s 0.53% loss, closing at $103,820. Significantly, BTC held above $100,000 for the seventh consecutive session, highlighting robust support.

Looking ahead, BTC’s price trends will likely depend on legislative updates, trade developments, US economic data, and ETF flow trends.

Potential scenarios:

• Bearish Scenario: Rising trade tensions, weak consumer sentiment data, a failed GENIUS Act vote, and ETF outflows. Bearish sentiment could send BTC toward $90,000.
• Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions, upbeat consumer sentiment data, GENIUS Act vote passes, and ETF inflows. Bullish sentiment could drive BTC above the record high of $109,312.

What to Watch

Market participants must closely monitor the ongoing Ripple legal case, upcoming ETF decisions, and key macroeconomic data releases. Positive developments in these areas could lift XRP sentiment, while policy clarity and investor appetite for risk will influence broader market trends.

Read analysts’ insights on what could drive cryptocurrencies to new highs.