XRP News Today: Fed Cut Bets and ETF Demand Lift Outlook

XRP-spot ETF hype, a broadening investor base, and increasing XRP utility boosted buyer demand for XRP. US XRP-spot ETF inflows edged closer to $1 billion on Friday, December 5, tilting the supply-demand balance in XRP’s favor.

Meanwhile, increasing real-world XRP utility has likely fueled institutional demand for XRP-spot ETFs. XRP-spot ETF inflows have outperformed inflows into the US BTC-spot ETF market despite fewer ETFs.

Last week, the Monetary Authority of Singapore expanded Ripple’s Asian footprint, granting an expanded scope of payment activities for its Major Payment Institution (MPI) license. According to Ripple, the approval enables the delivery of end-to-end, fully licensed payment services to its customers in the region.

Resilient institutional appetite and greater utility are two key ingredients for a bullish price trajectory for XRP.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 week) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

Ripple CEO Highlights XRP-Spot ETF Success

The US XRP-spot ETF market has seen total net inflows of $897.35 million since launch to Friday, December 5. Just four spot ETFs have drawn almost $1 billion in less than a month, underscoring robust institutional demand. $1 billion in inflows for the first month would align with JPMorgan’s pre-launch forecast of $8 billion in net inflows for year one.

Sustained inflows are likely to benefit XRP, setting up a bullish short- to medium-term price outlook.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse commented on the first-month success of the spot ETF market, stating:

“<4 weeks, and XRP is now the fastest crypto spot ETF to reach $1B in AUM (since ETH) in the US. With over 40 crypto ETFs launched this year in the US alone, a few points are obvious to me: 1/ there’s pent-up demand for regulated crypto products, and with Vanguard opening up access in traditional retirement/trading accounts for Americans… crypto is now accessible to millions more people who don’t need to be experts in technology.”

Last week, the Vanguard Group unlocked the door to crypto assets, allowing brokerage clients to invest in crypto-spot ETFs. Vanguard’s repositioning on digital assets came off the back of the launch of XRP-spot ETFs, widening the investor base.

The resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case and Ripple’s continued expansion on Main Street may accelerate the XRP-BTC decoupling, evidenced in spot ETF flows. US BTC-spot ETFs reported net outflows of $87.7 million in the reporting week ending December 5, while US XRP-spot ETFs saw net inflows of $230.73 million.

Flows for Monday, December 8, are expected later today.

21Shares XRP-Spot ETF Launch Countdown Begins

On Monday, December 8, 21Shares filed an amended S-1 for its XRP-spot ETF, ticker TOXR, amid strong inflows. An imminent launch could further tilt the supply-demand balance in XRP’s favor, supporting the bullish short- to medium-term outlook.

Bullish Medium-Term Outlook Hinged on the Fed and Spot ETF Flows

Market bets on a 25-basis point Fed rate cut on Wednesday, December 10, bolstered investor appetite for XRP and the broader market. However, uncertainty lingers over the Fed’s rate path through 2026. A more dovish Fed rate path, with multiple rate cuts in 2026, would likely lift sentiment.

Given the uncertainty, the FOMC Economic Projections, out after the interest rate decision, will likely influence XRP’s short-term price outlook. Softer US inflation in September may give the doves a stronger footing in Wednesday’s decision.

Beyond the Fed, several scenarios may boost buyer appetite for XRP, including:

• XRP-spot ETF launches and a broadening crypto investor base.
• The progress of crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• OCC grants Ripple a US-chartered banking license.

In my view, these potential tailwinds support a near-term (1-4 weeks) move to $2.35 and a medium-term (4-8 weeks) rise toward $2.5.

Downside Risks to Bullish Outlook

While the short- to medium-term outlook remains bullish, several events could derail the bullish outlook. These include:

• The Bank of Japan signals further rate hikes in 2026, triggering a yen carry trade unwind and market disruption.
• The MSCI delists digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Delistings could dampen demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• US Senate opposes the Market Structure Bill.
• OCC rejects Ripple’s application for a US-chartered banking license.
• XRP-spot ETFs see heavy outflows.

These events would likely push XRP below $2, exposing the November low of $1.82.

However, in my opinion, strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs, progress toward crypto-friendly regulations, a broadening investor base, and a dovish Fed will likely support a longer-term move toward $3.

In summary, the short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, while the medium- to longer-term outlook is constructive.

Financial Analysis

Technical Outlook: EMAs Signal Caution

XRP rose 1.35% on Monday, December 8, following the previous day’s 0.68% gain, closing at $2.0733. The token outperformed the broader crypto market, which advanced 0.67%.

Despite Monday’s gain, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish bias. However, fundamentals are shifting from the technical trend, supporting a bullish outlook.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2, $1.9112, and $1.8239
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.2678.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.4745.
• Resistance levels: $2.2, $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Avoiding a drop below the $2.0 psychological support level would support a move toward the 50-day EMA. A sustained breakout above the 50-day EMA would open the door to testing the $2.35 resistance level. Significantly, a break above the 50-day EMA would indicate a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would support a medium-term (4-8 weeks) climb to the 200-day EMA and the $2.5 level.

Fundamental Indicators: Corporate Signals, Policy Decisions

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF daily flows.
• Blue-chip companies’ views on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill.
• MSCI’s decision on DAT listings.
• The Fed and the BoJ’s interest rate decisions and forward guidance.

Bullish Structure: What Happens if $2.0 Holds?

Holding above the lower trendline and $2.0 would pave the way to the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would align with the $2.5 medium-term and $3 longer-term (8-12 weeks) price targets.

However, a move below $1.8239 would invalidate the medium-term bullish structure.

Outlook: Breaking $2.2 Resistance Key to Short-Term Outlook

XRP-spot ETF flows will face scrutiny on Tuesday, December 9, with Vanguard’s crypto U-turn and increased XRP utility expected to boost institutional demand. However, speculation about Wednesday’s FOMC Economic Projections and updates from Capitol Hill on the Market Structure Bill’s progress may increase volatility.

To summarize, robust XRP-spot ETF inflows and a dovish Fed rate cut support a short-term move to $2.35. Progress toward crypto-friendly legislation and wider XRP adoption would align with the medium-term (4-8 weeks) and longer-term (8-12 weeks) $2.5 and $3.0 price targets.