XRP News Today: Fed Rate Cut Bets and Trump–Xi Talks Could Ignite Rally

Another failed US Senate vote extended the US government shutdown to 28 days on Tuesday, October 28. The second-longest shutdown continues to delay the launch of XRP-spot ETFs and the anticipated influx of sticky institutional money. Uptober is turning out to be a disappointing tagline for XRP holders, with the token down 7.86% in October.

XRP faced a second day of selling after briefly climbing to $2.6927 on Monday, October 27, its highest level since the October 10 flash crash. XRP plunged to a low of $0.7773 in response to President Trump threatening a 100% tariff hike on Chinese shipments to the US. Since then, the US and China have progressed toward a trade deal, boosting demand for risk assets.

Despite this week’s pullback, the token reclaimed the $2.6 handle, signaling robust price support at current levels.

Political Gridlock Delays XRP-Spot ETF Launches

Capitol Hill remains the focal point for traders awaiting the SEC greenlighting XRP-spot ETFs. The US Senate failed to pass a Republican-backed stopgap funding bill, with a final vote of 54 to 45 falling short of the 60 votes needed to progress. Crucially, no new Democrats crossed the aisle, suggesting no end in sight.

The prolonged US government shutdown has left the SEC with a skeleton staff, temporarily delaying reviews and approvals, including S-1s for XRP-spot ETFs. Six of the seven spot ETF issuers have seen their final decision deadlines pass.

Despite the ongoing delays, recent crypto ETF market data has signaled robust institutional demand, suggesting strong inflows into XRP-spot ETFs upon launch.

According to ETF.com, REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) has reported total net inflows of $124.9 million since launching on September 18, 2025, with fund assets of $117.2 million. By contrast, REX-Osprey DOGE ETF (DOJE) has reported total inflows of just $39.7 million since September 18, 2025.

Bullish ETF Sentiment Despite Delays

Although XRPR and DOJE are not pure spot ETFs, flow trends and fund assets serve as a proxy for spot ETF demand.

For context, XRPR seeks investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to the performance of XRP. The fund will typically invest at least 80% of its net assets in XRP, including at least 40% through investments into XRP ETFs. Additionally, XRPR may gain exposure through derivatives, contrasting with spot ETFs.

NovaDius Wealth Management President Nate Geraci has a bullish outlook for XRP-spot ETFs. He recently stated:

“You heard it here first… People are severely underestimating investor demand for spot XRP & SOL ETFs. Just like they did w/ spot BTC & ETH ETFs.”

Geraci reacted to trading volumes for Bitwise’s SOL-spot ETF, which launched on Tuesday, October 28, stating:

“Bitwise spot SOL ETF posts highest day 1 trading volume out of some 850 ETF launches this year. Who could have seen this coming? Spot XRP ETFs will likely see similar reception, if not greater.”

Given flow trends into XRPR, the outlook remains bullish for XRP. However, the ongoing US government shutdown and delays to XRP-spot ETF launches remain a headwind, potentially capping the upside.

While the shutdown fuels uncertainty about the timeline for XRP-spot ETF launches, Polymarket currently gives a 99% chance for an XRP-spot ETF approval in 2025.

Fed Policy in Focus Ahead of Key Events

As traders consider the effects of the shutdown on spot ETF launches, focus will shift to the Fed on Wednesday, October 29.

Markets are betting on a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut later today, and an additional 25-basis-point cut in December. Unless there is a surprise decision, Fed Chair Powell’s press conference will be crucial for near-term price trends.

XRP could break out from its current price levels if Fed Chair Powell supports a December cut and signals inflation has peaked alongside a weakening labor market. Furthermore, Powell could indicate when the Fed will end quantitative tightening (QT). An end to QT and a rate cut may boost liquidity, driving demand for risk assets such as XRP.

Crypto investor and analyst Satoshi Stacker commented on the upcoming Fed monetary policy decision, stating:

“Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are now predicting that the Fed will end QT at the FOMC meeting this coming week. Historically, when the Fed ends a phase of QT, BTC and crypto have entered massive uptrends due to liquidity in the markets increasing.”

Volatility could spike this week given the Fed’s policy decision and President Trump’s highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi on Thursday, October 30.

A Fed rate cut, an end to QT, and Powell’s support for a December rate cut may send XRP toward $2.8. However, XRP could reclaim the $3 handle if Presidents Trump and Xi reach a trade deal and the US Senate passes a stopgap funding bill, potentially expediting the launch of XRP-spot ETFs.

Technical Outlook: Key XRP Price Levels

XRP dropped 1.07% on Tuesday, October 28, following the previous day’s 0.44% loss, closing at $2.6059. The token mirrored the broader crypto market, which fell 1.47%.

Despite Tuesday’s loss, XRP traded above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the token remained below the 50-day EMA, indicating a near-term bearish bias.

The Fed’s decision and a US government reopening could lift XRP above the 50-day EMA before tomorrow’s Trump-Xi meeting, signaling a bearish trend reversal.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.62, $2.35, $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.6852.
• 200-day EMA support: $2.61230
• Resistance levels: $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.

Catalysts to Watch in the Coming Sessions

In the upcoming sessions, several events could dictate near-term price trends:

• The Fed interest rate decision and press conference.
• US-China trade talks.
• A US Senate vote.
• XRP-spot ETFs (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s position on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies’ interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.62

• The Fed cuts rates, but Fed Chair Powell pours cold water over a December cut and offers no firm timeline to end QT.
• BlackRock downplays plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• The US Senate fails to pass a stopgap funding bill, further delaying XRP-spot ETF approvals.
• The US Senate opposes crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT maintains its market share in the global remittance sector, limiting Ripple’s market access.

These bearish events could push XRP below the $2.62 level, exposing the $2.35 support level. If breached, $2.2 would be the next key support level.

Despite bullish momentum, the descending channel highlights multiple confirmed touches of the upper resistance band, with each rally breaking down at a lower price level. See the chart below.

Bullish Scenario: Path to $3 Gains Traction

• The Fed cuts interest rates, signals an end to QT, and Fed Chair Powell supports a December rate cut.
• The US and China reach a trade agreement.
• The US Senate passes a stopgap funding bill.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies build XRP holdings for treasury reserve purposes, and Main Street integrates Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Market Structure Bill advances on Capitol Hill.

These bullish scenarios could send XRP toward $2.80. A break above $2.80 may pave the way toward the $3.0 psychological level. A sustained break above $3.00 could extend gains toward the all-time high of $3.66, representing the measured move from the ascending triangle pattern.

Notably, XRP has seen higher lows in recent sessions, with the triangle tightening and volatility contracting ahead of this week’s key events. See the chart below. This pattern signals an imminent move, underscoring the significance of the Fed monetary policy decision, the Trump-Xi meeting, and US Senate votes.

Outlook: Tailwinds Signal Bullish Momentum

XRP’s near-term price trend hinges on the Fed’s monetary policy decision, the US Senate, and US-China trade talks.

While XRP has trended lower in October, these events could trigger the next extended rally, potentially sending the token to new highs.