XRP News Today: Market Eyes ETF Decision as Ripple Banking Speculation Grows

XRP Reclaims Key Level as a Perfect Storm Brews

The crypto market soared to an all-time high market cap of $4.27 trillion as Bitcoin (BTC) broke above $125,000 for the first time, lifting sentiment. XRP broke back above the psychological $3 level on Monday, October 6, as early Uptober sets the stage for a pivotal fourth quarter.

The anticipation of several key events has triggered an XRP recovery from the September 22 low of $2.6919. Notably, the combination of multiple Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter and the US government shutdown have driven demand. The ongoing shutdown could prompt a more dovish Fed policy stance, raising demand for risk assets.

Institutional Demand Drives Broader Rally

BTC, Ethereum (ETHETH), and Solana (SOL) have outperformed XRP in the current market breakout, given strong institutional demand through spot ETFs.

Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan commented on XRP trailing the trio in the absence of an XRP-spot ETF market, stating:

“XRP is up but struggling to stay above $3 even though Bitcoin has reached another ATH. Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to enjoy a market advantage of spot ETFs having been approved while the SEC delays approving other altcoin ETFs. How long can the delay of spot XRP ETFs continue?”

Morgan also highlighted the performance of XRP against the US dollar, ETH, and BTC, underscoring the comparative strength of BTC, ETH, and SOL against XRP.

For the current month, XRP/BTC and XRP/ETH are down 3.85% and 7.12%, respectively, with SOL/XRP up 7.41%. Meanwhile, XRP has gained 5.38% against the US dollar.

Potential Catalysts for an XRP Breakout

Despite trailing BTC, ETH, and SOL, XRP could potentially outperform the three cryptos in October. Four XRP price catalysts include:

• XRP-spot ETFs launch.
• Ripple receives a banking license.
• XRP utilization by global banks.
• Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.

Although the Senate failed to pass the stopgap bill, approval could follow once funding resumes. XRP-spot ETFs may open the floodgates for Main Street investors looking for a crypto asset with real-world utility.

Given how ETF flows have driven BTC, ETH, and SOL higher, similar demand for XRP-spot ETFs could send the token to new highs. Standard Chartered Bank previously predicted XRP could break above $5 by December 2025 and climb to $12.5 by 2028.

For context, BTC has soared 169% since January 11, 2024, the first day of trading for US BTC-spot ETFs. A similar XRP-spot ETF trajectory would take XRP above $5.

Ripple’s Banking License and Legislative Momentum

However, XRP would likely also benefit from Ripple receiving a banking license, crypto legislation, increasing demand for Ripple’s XRPL, and global remittances.

Speculation has intensified over Ripple obtaining a US banking license since the public comment period ended. Meanwhile, updates on the Market Structure Bill continue to bolster sentiment despite the US government shutdown.

Crypto America host Eleanor Terrett shared the latest updates on the Market Structure Bill, stating:

“Senator Cory Booker has stepped in to lead bipartisan discussions on a crypto market structure draft for Democrats on the Senate Ag Committee, taking over from Ranking Member Senator Amy Klobuchar, according to several people familiar with the discussions. These talks are ongoing between Booker’s staff and Chairman John Boozman’s team, the people said. It remains unclear when a draft might be released. Booker, one of the senators from New Jersey, has long supported balanced crypto regulation and giving the CFTC greater authority over digital commodities.”

Why Traders Must Watch Capitol Hill

XRP soared 14.69% in response to the US House of Representatives passing the Market Structure Bill to the Senate. BTC gained just 0.39%, reflecting XRP’s sensitivity to US crypto legislation.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: Can Bulls Break $3 Resistance?

XRP advanced 0.68% on Monday, October 6, following the previous day’s 0.02% gain, closing at $2.9905. The token underperformed the broader market (1.68%) but briefly climbed above the psychological $3 level.

Traders are watching the following technical levels:

• Support: $2.8, $2.5.
• Resistance: $3, $3.1, $3.3, $3.66 (all-time high).

In the coming sessions, several key events could determine near-term price trends:

• XRP ETF demand, crypto-spot ETF decisions (delays or launches), and BlackRock’s position on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies’ views on XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related headlines would likely influence near-term price trends.

Catalysts & Scenarios

ETF flow trends, legislative headlines, banking license developments, and corporate demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset will likely dictate price direction.

Bearish Scenario

• GDLC, BITW, and XRPR ETFs report outflows, and BlackRock downplays plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• US government shutdown delays XRP-spot ETF approvals.
• Lawmakers roadblock crypto-friendly regulations, such as the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies avoid XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT maintains global remittance dominance, limiting Ripple’s market access.

These bearish scenarios could push the token below $2.8, potentially testing the $2.5 support level.

Bullish Scenario

• BITW, GDLC, and XRPR report strong inflows.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC greenlights spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies hold XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms integrate Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
• SWIFT loses market share in the global remittance business to Ripple.

These bullish scenarios could drive the token toward $3.1. A sustained move through $3.1 would enable the bulls to target $3.3 and the all-time high of $3.66.

The Big Question: Will XRP-Spot ETFs Launch in October?

On Monday, October 6, the US Senate failed to pass a stopgap funding bill for the sixth time. The Republicans’ bill failed by a 52-42 vote, while the Democrats’ bill failed in a 45-55 vote. 60 votes are needed to pass a bill. Despite the failed votes, reports of President Trump being willing to negotiate with the Democrats could boost optimism.

The SEC may green-light the spot ETFs soon after the US government reopens.

Analysts will closely monitor how regulatory risks influence XRP’s price outlook in the coming weeks.