US crypto legislative developments weighed on XRP and the broader crypto market on Tuesday, July 15. The House voted against the GENIUS Act, dampening hopes for comprehensive crypto regulatory frameworks to further drive adoption.
CryptoAmerica host and journalist Eleanor Terrett reported the developments on Capitol Hill, stating:
“Many of the House members who voted no today had concerns with the GENIUS Act possibly enabling a CBDC. However, there is language in GENIUS that would explicitly prohibit the Fed from creating a retail CBDC.”
Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Custodia Bank, downplayed the vote, commenting:
“BEFORE Y’ALL FREAK OUT, don’t forget that the first procedural vote in the Senate on the GENIUS Act failed as well…the second one passed 11 days later.”
Tuesday’s vote preceded votes on the CLARITY Act and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, also slated for this week, dubbed Crypto Week.
While legislative setbacks weighed on sentiment, progress toward an XRP-spot ETF market cushioned the downside.
The SEC approved the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF on July 15, lifting XRP demand. XRP community member JackTheRippler shared NYSE Arca’s announcement of the approval, which stated:
“The NYSE Arca certifies its approval for listing and registration of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, a series of ProShares Trust, under the Exchange Act of 1934.”
The ProShares Ultra XRP ETF seeks daily investment returns, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times (2x) the daily performance of the Bloomberg XRP Index. The ETF invests in futures and not directly in XRP.
Although the ETF does not hold XRP directly, its approval marks progress toward potential spot-based products. The ETF issuer launched its Bitcoin ETF in 2021, investing in futures and swaps.
However, markets await an SEC response to Grayscale’s request to allow its Digital Large Cap ETF (GDLC) to launch, a potentially bigger milestone in the crypto-ETF space. On July 1, the SEC approved Grayscale’s filing for a rule change to convert the Digital Large Cap Fund into the Digital Large Cap ETF but simultaneously issued a stay order, delaying the launch. The GDLC ETF will give investors exposure to BTC, ETH, ADA, SOL, and XRP.
Grayscale responded to the stay order, filing a letter with the SEC, arguing that the agency did not have the power to delay the launch. The SEC’s response could be pivotal. In 2023, Grayscale successfully appealed against the agency’s decision to decline the rule change to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF. The successful appeal paved the way for the 2024 launch of BTC-spot ETFs.
XRP fell 1.33%, snapping a seven-day winning streak and partially erasing Monday’s 4.37% rally, to close at $2.9198. The token underperformed the broader crypto market, which fell 0.58% to a total market cap of $3.68 trillion.
XRP’s near-term price outlook depends on US legislative developments, the SEC’s appeal vote, and US XRP-spot ETF headlines. Notably, the SEC could potentially vote to drop its appeal in the Ripple case at tomorrow’s closed meeting.
A breakout above the July 14 high of $3.0345 may open the door to a test of the 2025 high at $3.3999. A sustained move through $3.3999 may pave the way to the 2018 all-time high of $3.5505.
Conversely, a drop below $2.8 could bring the July 11 low of $2.5137 into play.
Explore our full XRP forecast here for key breakout zones and timing insights.
While XRP snapped a seven-day winning streak, bitcoin (BTC) pulled back from the July 14 all-time high of $122,057 (Binance Exchange). The GENIUS Act vote and US inflation figures impacted BTC demand.
The US annual inflation rate rose to 2.7% in June, up from 2.4% in May, while core inflation increased to 2.9% (May: 2.8%). The pickup in inflation dampened bets on a September Fed rate cut, weighing on risk assets. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a September Fed rate cut dropped from 62.6% on July 14 to 54.9% on July 15.
However, BTC rebounded from a session low of $115,701, buoyed by US BTC-spot ETF market flow trends.
On Monday, July 14, the US BTC-spot ETF market registered total net inflows of $297.4 million, taking inflows for July to $3,682.3 million. While flows for July 15 were mixed, BlackRock (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) could extend the inflow streak to nine sessions. According to Farside Investors, key flow trends for July 15 included:
With iShares Bitcoin Trust and Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF’s (BTCO) flow data pending, total US BTC-spot ETF outflows reached $13.2 million.
Market intelligence platform Santiment commented on the flow trends, stating:
“Bitcoin ETF’s are showing massive money inflows moving into them as crypto’s #1 asset continues trading in new territory. Since June 9th, these ETF’s have seen a net inflow of a combined $7.78B, or $353.8M per day. As on-chain whales continue accumulating, these fiat inflows coming into ETF’s are contributing to the record-setting BTC all-time high levels.”
BTC fell 1.7% on July 15, reversing Monday’s 0.92% gain to close at $117,682.
The near-term price outlook hinges on several key drivers, including crypto-related legislative votes, US producer prices, and spot ETF flow trends.
Potential scenarios:
Investors should closely monitor the key drivers, which may determine if XRP and BTC can hit new record highs. These include:
See where analysts expect XRP and BTC to head as legal and political risks evolve.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.