It’s another Thursday, and another SEC closed meeting will spotlight the Ripple case. Speculation will likely intensify about whether the SEC will vote to withdraw the appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.
Four weeks have passed since Judge Analisa Torres rejected Ripple and the SEC’s joint motion for an indicative ruling on settlement terms. The SEC had previously voted to drop its appeal if Judge Torres lifts the injunction prohibiting XRP sales to institutional investors and lowers the penalty to $50 million.
SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins and the Commissioners must vote again to withdraw the appeal despite the settlement terms favoring Ripple. However, court schedules may dictate the timeline for a vote.
The agency must submit a status report on the settlement to the US Court of Appeals by August 15, coincidentally a Friday. Relevant decisions from closed meetings typically surface the day after the closed meetings.
Investor patience is growing thin. The SEC’s inaction in the Ripple case is potentially influencing the agency’s stance on XRP-linked crypto-spot ETF launches.
The SEC has approved rule changes for crypto funds to convert to ETFs. However, the agency also issued ‘stay orders’ pausing the launches. Delays to the launches of the Grayscale Digital Large Cap ETF and Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF may affect the launch of pending XRP-spot ETFs. Both ETFs will give investors exposure to multiple leading tokens, including XRP.
Anticipation of the SEC withdrawing its appeal and approving XRP-spot ETFs previously drove XRP to its July 18 all-time high of $3.6606.
Bloomberg Intelligence ETF Analyst James Seyffart offered two potential reasons for the stay orders, stating:
“My guess is that the SEC wants to finalize some sort of framework or generic listing standards for crypto asset ETPs before they allow the products to convert to ETFs. The other theory here is that one commissioner is slowing things down.”
ETF Store President Nate Geraci remarked on the two theories:
“I lean towards the latter. Both of these were approved by SEC Division of Trading & Markets and then immediately stayed. Doesn’t make sense.”
SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw may be slowing the agency’s decision-making processes, including a vote on the appeal. Commissioner Crenshaw previously criticized the settlement terms in the Ripple case, potentially influencing Judge Torres’ ruling, stating:
“This settlement, alongside the programmatic disassembly of the SEC’s crypto enforcement program, does a tremendous disservice to the investing public and undermines the court’s role in interpreting our securities laws. This is not a settlement I can support.”
XRP plunged 10.41% on Wednesday, July 23, reversing Tuesday’s 0.01% gain, to close at $3.1830. The token underperformed the broader crypto market, which dropped 2.53% to a total crypto market cap of $3.82 trillion.
XRP’s near-term price outlook depends on the SEC’s appeal vote and US XRP-spot ETF-related updates.
A breakout above $3.4 could enable the bulls to target the July 18 all-time high of $3.6606. A sustained move through $3.6606 may pave the way to the $4 level. Conversely, a drop below the July 23 low of $3.0523 could bring sub-$3 levels into play.
Explore our full XRP forecast here for key breakout zones and timing insights.
While XRP plunged on SEC silence, bitcoin (BTC) dropped as demand for spot ETFs waned. The US BTC-spot ETF market reported net outflows of $68 million on July 22, following outflows of $131.4 million the previous session. Outflows intensified on July 23, weighing on sentiment. According to Farside Investors, key outflows for July 23 included:
With BlackRock (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) flow data pending, total US BTC-spot ETF outflows reached $228.4 million.
On July 22, US Senators introduced the Responsible Financial Innovation Act of 2025 (RFIA), aiming to deliver further regulatory clarity to the US digital asset space. A robust regulatory framework supporting innovation while protecting investors could fuel BTC and XRP adoption.
The bill follows the signing of the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act’s progress to the Senate, underscoring the shift in lawmaker sentiment toward crypto.
Senator Cynthia Lummis remarked:
“Today, Senator Tim Scott, Bernie Moreno, and Senator Hagerty, and I led our colleagues in releasing the discussion draft for market structure legislation that will serve as the foundation for making the US the crypto capital of the world.”
BTC fell 0.99% on July 23, partially reversing Tuesday’s 2.2% gain to close at $118,795.
The near-term price outlook depends on several key drivers. These include legislative updates from Capitol Hill, Strategic Reserve Asset-related headlines, and spot ETF flow trends.
Potential scenarios:
Investors should monitor the key drivers, which may dictate whether XRP and BTC can hit new record highs. These include:
See where analysts expect XRP and BTC to head as legal and political risks evolve.
With over 28 years of experience in the financial industry, Bob has worked with various global rating agencies and multinational banks. Currently he is covering currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes and global equities, focusing mostly on European and Asian markets.