XRP News Today: XRP Eyes $2 Breakout as Trade Tensions Ease

XRP snaps a seven-day losing streak as US President Trump withdraws his 10% EU tariff threat, boosting demand for risk assets.

On Wednesday, January 21, President Trump shared details of an agreement on Greenland, removing the risk of an all-out trade war with the EU. Previously, XRP plunged 12% to a low of $1.8489 in response to the threat of tariffs on eight European NATO nations.

The World Economic Forum was a focal point for the crypto markets, with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse also in the spotlight.

Wednesday’s rebound affirmed the bullish medium-term outlook for XRP. Easing trade tensions, robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs, increased XRP utility, and the progress of the Market Structure Bill are key tailwinds.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

US President Trump Ends Threat of a Trade War

On January 21, President Trump announced a framework for a future deal on acquiring Greenland, stating:

“Based on a very productive meeting that I have had with the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, we have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region. This solution, if consummated, will be a great one for the United States of America, and all NATO Nations. Based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the Tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on February 1st.”

The US President shared a clip of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stating:

“I am not popular with you now, because I am defending Donald Trump, but I really believe we can be happy that he is there because he has forced us in Europe to step up and face the consequences that we have to take care of our own defense.”

Rutte’s comments signaled a shift in US-EU relations, which could boost trade relations, a positive outcome for risk assets such as XRP.

Brad Garlinghouse Puts Crypto and Legislation in the Spotlight

While the US and the EU avoided a full-blown trade war, taking center stage, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse put the spotlight on crypto and blockchain tech, stating:

“Spirited dialogue during today’s WEF session (to say the least), but one important point of agreement across the panelists was that innovation and regulation aren’t on opposite sides. I firmly believe this is THE moment to use crypto and blockchain technology to enable economic access for a more efficient, more scalable, and utility-focused global financial system.

The resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case in 2025 has enabled Ripple to make giant strides on Main Street, boosting XRP adoption. However, analysts believe that crypto legislation would legitimize XRP further and accelerate the morphing of TradFi and DeFi.

Last week, the US Senate Banking Committee postponed its markup vote on the draft text of the Market Structure Bill after Coinbase (COIN) withdrew its support. The Banking Committee’s decision to postpone followed the US Senate Agriculture Committee’s delay of its draft text and markup vote.

However, Brad Garlinghouse had a different view of the draft text. The Ripple CEO argued against suggestions that no bill is better than a bad bill, stating:

“Let’s not let perfect be the enemy of good – this right here is the key. No piece of legislation has ever been perfect by everyone’s standards. What we need is a clear framework, allowing innovation to flourish – exactly what Market Structure will deliver. I’ll keep saying it (even if others disagree) – clarity over chaos.”

The US Senate Agriculture Committee will release its draft text on Friday, January 23, ahead of a markup vote on January 27.

The progress of the Market Structure Bill remains key to XRP’s bullish short- to medium-term outlook.

XRP Price Forecast: Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Targets

Improved risk sentiment reinforced the positive short-term outlook (1-4 weeks), with a target price of $2.5. Optimism toward the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill, increased XRP utility, and robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs remain key tailwinds. These tailwinds support the bullish longer-term price targets:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.66.

Key Downside Risks to the Bullish XRP Outlook

Several factors could derail the positive outlook. These include:

• The Bank of Japan declares a hawkish neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%), signaling multiple rate hikes. A higher neutral rate could trigger a yen carry trade unwind, similar to the unwind in mid-2024. A yen carry trade unwind would invalidate the short-term outlook.
• Fading bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut.
• Further delays to the Market Structure Bill.
• XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.

These scenarios would weigh on risk assets, sending XRP below $1.85, which would indicate a bearish trend reversal.

Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch

XRP rallied 3.13% on Wednesday, January 21, partially reversing the previous day’s 4.86% slide to close at $1.9463. The token outperformed the broader crypto market cap, which gained 1.22%.

Despite Wednesday’s recovery, XRP remained below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a bearish bias. However, the bullish fundamentals continue to offset bearish technicals, supporting the positive outlook.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $1.85, $1.75, and then $1.50.
• 50-day EMA resistance: $2.0537.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.3035.
• Resistance levels: $2.0, $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.

Viewing the daily chart, a breakout above $2.0 would bring the 50-day EMA into play. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal. A bullish trend reversal would enable the bulls to target $2.2. A break above $2.2 would pave the way toward the 200-day EMA.

Significantly, a sustained move through the EMAs would reaffirm the bullish medium- and longer-term price targets.

Fundamental Events Dictating Near-Term Price Action

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flow trends.
• US economic indicators and the Fed’s forward guidance.
• US crypto-related legislative developments.
• The Bank of Japan’s rate path.

Reclaiming $2 Is Key for XRP’s Bullish Structure

Breaking above $2 will be key for the short- to medium-term outlook after avoiding sub-$1.85 levels. The bullish fundamentals, stated earlier, continue to offset bearish technicals, suggesting a near-term rally. The token’s breakout from a December low of $1.7712 and January gains of 6.29% reaffirmed the bullish structure and short- to medium-term price projections.

A move through $2.0 would enable the bulls to target the upper trendline. A break above the upper trendline would reaffirm the bullish trend reversal and validate the bullish structure, supporting the price targets:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8–12 weeks): target of $3.66.

However, a sustained drop below the lower trendline to sub-$1.85 levels would invalidate the bullish structure, signaling a bearish trend reversal.

XRP Outlook Hinges on Legislation, ETFs, and Central Banks

Looking ahead, the market focus will return to crypto-related legislative developments, which are likely to affect XRP’s price outlook. Reaction to the Agriculture Committee’s draft text of the Market Structure Bill will be key.

However, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision (January 23), US economic data, and XRP-spot ETF flows will also influence the near-term price outlook.

Easing geopolitical tensions, increased bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut, and a dovish BoJ neutral rate (potentially 1%-1.25%) would boost sentiment. Robust demand for XRP-spot ETFs, increased XRP utility, and the progress of the Market Structure Bill would reinforce the constructive bias.

In summary, these factors support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $3.0. Furthermore, the US Senate’s passing the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the longer-term (8–12 weeks) price target of $3.66.

Looking beyond the 12 weeks, positive developments are likely to drive XRP to its all-time high of $3.66 (Binance). A break above $3.66 would support a 6- to 12-month price target of $5.