XRP News Today: XRP Rises as Legal Analysts Back Ripple’s Motion Success; BTC at $105k

Ripple vs. SEC: Pivotal Ruling Could Reshape XRP’s Future

The SEC vs. Ripple case enters a pivotal phase this week, with the XRP community hoping the case concludes in the coming days.

On Monday, June 16, the SEC must file a settlement status report with the US Court of Appeals. Failure to file an update on progress toward a settlement would mean Ripple must file its appeal-related reply brief in response to the SEC’s opening brief, advancing the agency’s appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.

Monday’s court filing and ruling could be a formality since Ripple and the SEC filed a second joint motion on June 12, requesting an indicative ruling on lifting the ban prohibiting XRP sales to institutional investors and lowering the $125 million penalty. It’s plausible the Court of Appeals will grant a second 60-day stay, allowing Judge Analisa Torres time to deliberate on the second settlement request.

While the SEC’s filing will draw scrutiny, Judge Torres’ ruling on the settlement request will carry greater significance. Speculation about Judge Torres granting the motion has intensified, with some hopeful of a favorable ruling as early as June 16, just days after the second filing. Judge Torres rejected the first motion seven days after the first filing, suggesting investors may need to wait until June 19 at the earliest.

There is some anxiety within the legal community about Judge Torres’ potential ruling. Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan remarked on the potential timing of a ruling, stating:

“It only took 7 days for Judge Torres to reject the last joint motion to modify the judgment to reduce the fine and dissolve the injunction. Less than 7 days to decide the current joint motion may not be the best sign she will grant it.”

Will the Second Settlement Request Meet Judge Torres’s Requirements?

Judge Torres rejected the first request for an indicative ruling on settlement terms, citing procedural errors and inadequate arguments that a settlement serves the public and institutional investors. The legal community has debated whether the second settlement filing sufficiently addresses Judge Torres’ requirements.

Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan remarked:

“The strongest argument in the joint motion is that the modification of the final orders of Judge Torres is a necessary condition of the settlement agreement between the SEC and Ripple, and that if the final orders are modified by reducing the amount of the fine and dissolving the injunction, the litigation will finally be at an end and court resources will be saved as this will bring an end to the appeal and cross-appeal.”

However, Morgan criticized the motion since it did not argue exceptional circumstances, concluding:

“They could have simply agreed to end the appeal and the cross-appeal and lived with and moved on from the final orders made by Judge Torres. Ripple wanted more. The parties are really imposing a fait accompli on the court and hoping the Judge exercises her discretion to accept and allow it. Intuitively, I think she will grant the motion but it would not surprise at all if she does not.”

Amicus Curiae attorney and CryptoLaw founder John E. Deaton put the chances of Judge Torres granting the motion at 70%.

XRP Price Outlook: Court Rulings and ETF News

XRP rose 1.18% on Sunday, June 15, reversing Saturday’s 0.33% loss to close at $2.1670. The token outperformed the broader market, which gained 0.43%, taking the total crypto market cap to $2.25 trillion. Anticipation of a favorable ruling bolstered XRP demand.

The near-term XRP outlook hinges on Judge Torres’ ruling, the SEC’s appeal plans, and ETF-related headlines. A breakout above $2.2 could signal a move toward the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA may open the door to $2.50 and the May 12 high of $2.6553. However, a drop below the 200-day EMA could enable the bears to target sub-$2 and the $1.9299 support level.

For a deeper dive, see our full XRP forecast here.

Bitcoin Dips as Middle East Tensions Simmer

While XRP snapped a five-day losing streak, bitcoin (BTC) edged higher on June 15. The Israel-Iran conflict remained the focal point over the weekend after Iran retaliated to Israel’s June 12 attacks. The conflict intensified on Sunday. However, hopes of a ceasefire boosted demand for risk assets late in the session. In the futures markets, the Nasdaq 100 rose 51 points in early trading on June 16.

Despite market optimism of a ceasefire, risks remain. A prolonged conflict and potential supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz could send crude oil prices toward $100. An extended rise in oil prices may lift inflation, ending central bank plans to cut rates and potentially triggering rate hikes. The prospect of higher borrowing costs may revive US recessionary concerns, further pressuring sentiment.

Geopolitical tensions overshadowed recent US BTC-spot ETF flow data, signaling robust demand. Flow trends remain crucial for BTC’s price trajectory. Spot ETF inflows have prevented BTC from dropping below $100,000 despite the events unfolding in the Middle East. For context, BTC slid 3.94% to $60,874 on October 1, 2024, the last time Israel attacked Iran.

BTC Price Outlook: Geopolitical Risks and ETF Flows

BTC edged 0.08% higher on June 15, following Saturday’s 0.59% loss, closing at $105,563. The short-term price trajectory depends on Israel-Iran-related news, legislative updates, the FOMC’s economic projections, and ETF flows.

Potential scenarios:

• Bearish Scenario: Escalating Israel-Iran conflict, legislation setbacks, a hawkish Fed stance, and ETF outflows. A combination of these may push BTC below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and $100,000.
• Bullish Scenario: Easing geopolitical risks, positive crypto bill-related headlines, a dovish Fed outlook, and ETF inflows. In these scenarios, investors could retarget the all-time high of $111,917.

What to Watch

Investors must consider court filings and rulings from the Ripple case, legislative developments, geopolitical risks, and ETF flow trends. These factors are vital for XRP and BTC price trends and may dictate whether either token revisits record highs.

Explore analyst forecasts on where XRP and BTC may head next as legal and political factors unfold.