XRP News Today: XRP Slips on Senate Bill but Bulls Defend $2

XRP dips as concerns over the Market Structure Bill trigger profit-taking and rotation into BTC and the broader crypto market.

This week, the US Senate Banking Committee released its Market Structure Bill text ahead of the highly anticipated January 15 markup. However, the text received mixed reviews, weighing on the demand for XRP.

Despite concerns over the Bill, robust inflows into XRP-spot ETFs and increased XRP utility continue to support a bullish short- to medium-term price outlook for XRP.

Below, I will explore the key drivers behind recent price trends, the medium-term (4-8 weeks) outlook, and the key technical levels traders should watch.

US Senate Banking Committee Market Structure Bill Gets Bad Reviews

The US Senate Banking Committee published a bipartisan text of the Market Structure Bill on Tuesday, January 13, setting the stage for a Committee vote on Thursday, January 15.

Hopes for crypto-friendly legislation sent XRP to a January 6 high of $2.4151 before briefly dropping below $2.1.

However, negative reviews of the text and investor caution ahead of the January 15 US Senate Banking Committee markup left XRP in negative territory mid-week.

Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong criticized the Banking Committee’s text, stating:

“After reviewing the Senate Banking draft text over the last 48hrs, Coinbase unfortunately can’t support the bill as written. […] We appreciate all the hard work by members of the Senate to reach a bipartisan outcome, but this version would be materially worse than the current status quo. We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill. Hopefully, we can all get to a better draft.”

Armstrong highlighted several issues with the bill, including:

• A de facto ban on tokenized equities.
• DeFi prohibitions, giving the government unlimited access to your financial records and removing your right to privacy.
• Erosion of the CFTC’s authority, stifling innovation and making it subservient to the SEC.
• Draft amendments that would kill rewards on stablecoins, allowing banks to ban their competition.

SEC vs. Ripple Case Exposes XRP to Legislative Developments

Armstrong’s view on the bill giving the SEC greater authority than the CFTC likely weighed on buyer appetite for XRP, given the SEC vs. Ripple case. The US Court of Appeals approved Ripple and the SEC’s appeal withdrawals in August 2025 following a lengthy legal battle that lasted almost five years.

Crucially, the SEC withdrew its appeal against Judge Torres’ July 2023 ruling that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test. The court ruling paved the way for a US XRP-spot ETF market and enabled Ripple to expand its US footprint, thereby increasing the real-world utility of XRP.

Despite the negative comments, Armstrong remained hopeful for a crypto-friendly regulatory environment, concluding:

“I’m actually quite optimistic that we will get to the right outcome with continued effort. We will keep showing up and working with everyone to get there.”

Notably, Coinbase was also embroiled in a legal battle with the SEC. In 2023, the SEC charged Coinbase with allegedly operating as an unregistered securities exchange, broker, and clearing agency. Additionally, the SEC charged Coinbase for the unregistered offering and selling of securities in connection with its staking-as-a-service program.

The SEC dismissed the Coinbase lawsuit in February 2025, following Chair Gary Gensler’s departure from the agency.

Legislation giving the SEC greater authority exposes XRP and the broader crypto market to political risk. An anti-crypto US administration could potentially establish an agency tasked with challenging the digital asset space through the courts.

Ripple Gives Thumbs Up to the Draft Text

Despite Armstrong’s concerns, other market participants were less critical about the Banking Committee’s draft text. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse commented on the draft text, stating:

“While long overdue, this move by Senator Tim Scott and the Banking Committee on market structure is a massive step forward in providing workable frameworks for crypto, while continuing to protect consumers. Ripple (and I) know firsthand that clarity beats chaos, and the bill’s success is crypto’s success. We are at the table and will continue to move forward with fair debate. I remain optimistic that issues can be resolved through the markup process.”

The progress of the Market Structure Bill on Capitol Hill remains key to XRP’s bullish short- to medium-term price outlook.

For context, the token surged 14.69% on July 17 after the US House of Representatives passed the Market Structure Bill to the Senate. XRP then rallied from a December 31 $1.8746 to an eight-week high of $2.4151 on January 6 after the Banking Committee announced a January 15 markup.

XRP Price Targets

The progress of the Market Structure Bill, strong XRP-spot ETF inflows, and increased XRP utility reinforce a positive short-term (1-4 weeks) outlook, with a $2.5 price target.

Furthermore, expectations that the Senate will pass crypto-friendly legislation reaffirmed the bullish longer-term price targets:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8-12 weeks): $3.66.

Key Risks to Bullish Outlook

Several scenarios could derail the positive outlook. These include:

• The Bank of Japan signals a hawkish neutral interest rate (potentially 1.5%-2.5%), indicating multiple rate hikes. A higher neutral rate could trigger a yen carry trade unwind, which would affect the short-term outlook.
• US economic indicators and the Fed are tempering bets on an H1 2026 rate cut.
• US lawmakers oppose the Market Structure Bill, further delaying crypto legislation.
• XRP-spot ETFs report outflows.

These scenarios would likely weigh on sentiment, pushing XRP below $2, which would signal a bearish trend reversal.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

XRP fell 1.24% on Wednesday, January 14, partially reversing the previous day’s 5.43% rally to close at $2.1376. The token underperformed the broader crypto market cap, which gained 1.09%.

Despite the pullback, XRP remained above its 50-day EMA, while the token continued trading below the 200-day EMA. The EMAs signaled a bullish near-term but a bearish longer-term bias. However, the bullish fundamentals remain dominant.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.0, $1.75, and then $1.50.
• 50-day EMA support: $2.0796.
• 200-day EMA resistance: $2.3273.
• Resistance levels: $2.5, $3.0, and $3.66.

Viewing the daily chart, a breakout above $2.2 would pave the way toward the 200-day EMA. A sustained move through the 200-EMA would signal a bullish trend reversal, opening the door to testing the $2.5 resistance level.

Importantly, a break above the EMAs would reaffirm the bullish medium-term outlook and the longer-term (8-12 weeks) $3.66 price target.

Fundamental Drivers to Monitor

Near-term price drivers include:

• XRP-spot ETF flows.
• US economic data and the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
• US crypto-related regulatory developments.

Holding Above $2 Remains Crucial

Holding above the $2 psychological support level remains pivotal for the short- to medium-term outlook. Favorable fundamentals continue to outweigh bearish longer-term technicals, indicating a sustained rebound. The recovery from December’s lows and January’s gains reinforced the bullish structure and constructive short- to medium-term bias.

A breakout above $2.2 would enable the bulls to target the upper trendline. A sustained move through the upper trendline would affirm the bullish trend reversal and validate the bullish structure, supporting the price targets:

• Medium-term (4-8 weeks): $3.0.
• Longer-term (8–12 weeks): target of $3.66.

However, a drop below $2.0 would bring the lower trendline into play. A sustained fall through the lower trendline would invalidate the bullish structure, signaling a bearish trend reversal.

Outlook:

Looking ahead, today’s Banking Committee markup, central bank chatter, and XRP-spot ETF flows will influence the near-term price outlook.

Increasing expectation of a March Fed rate cut, and a dovish BoJ neutral rate (potentially 1%-1.25%) would lift sentiment. Strong demand for XRP-spot ETFs and bipartisan support for the Market Structure Bill would reinforce the constructive bias.

In summary, robust XRP-spot ETF inflows and the progress of the Market Structure Bill support a medium-term (4–8 weeks) move to $3.0. A March Fed rate cut and the Senate passing the Market Structure Bill would reaffirm the longer-term (8–12 weeks) price target of $3.66.

Looking beyond 12 weeks, these events are likely to send XRP above its all-time high of $3.66. A break above $3.66 would support the $5 price target over a 6- to 12-month time horizon.