XRP Price Forecast – Key Support Levels and Whale Accumulation Indicate 50% Rally

Yashu Gola
Updated: Jun 18, 2024, 13:49 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • XRP's weekly chart shows a Doji candlestick pattern near a critical support level, indicating a potential 50% price rebound next.
  • The richest XRP investors (holding over 1 billion tokens) have increased their holdings.
  • Anticipation of a favorable outcome in Ripple's lawsuit against the SEC and XRP's oversold status against Bitcoin is driving investor confidence.
Ripple coins, FX Empire

In this article:

XRP is one of the worst top-ranking cryptocurrencies in terms of price performance so far in 2024, down about 20% year-to-date to $0.49 as of June 18. However, the Ripple cryptocurrency is now reaching a key inflection point that could lead to a 50% price boom in the coming weeks or months. Let’s discuss these ultra-bullish catalysts in detail.

XRP Forms “Doji” Near A Critical Support

For those unfamiliar with the term, a Doji candlestick is a unique pattern in technical analysis. It’s characterized by a very small body, where the asset’s opening and closing prices are nearly equal, accompanied by long upper and lower shadows (or wicks). This pattern suggests a standoff between buyers and sellers, indicating a potential reversal in the current trend.

In addition, a Doji can signal a potential reversal in the current trend, especially when it appears after a prolonged uptrend or downtrend. It suggests that the current trend might be losing momentum and that a change in direction could be imminent.

Interestingly, the XRP price is forming a Doji candlestick on its weekly chart after witnessing a 37% correction from its 2024 high of around $0.75. This indecisiveness among traders after a strong correction indicates a potential rebound ahead.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

The Doji-oriented bullish reversal outlook receives further help from XRP’s multi-year ascending trendline support, which is part of a giant symmetrical triangle conjugation with a multi-year descending trendline resistance.

As of June 18, XRP’s price was testing the ascending trendline for a potential rebound toward the descending trendline resistance, akin to its previous bounce backs.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Should XRP price rebound from the triangle’s lower trendline, it will likely reach $0.75 by the year’s end, up around 50% from the current price levels.

XRP’s Richest Whales Return to Accumulation

XRP’s bullish outlook improves further with a recent whale activity, namely the increase in the cryptocurrency’s supply among its richest addresses—entities with more than 1 billion XRP tokens.

As of June 18, the 1 billion-plus XRP balance cohort (black) controls 41.3% of XRP’s total circulating supply, up from their sessional low of 39.56% three months ago. In contrast, the holdings of the 100 million to 1 billion XRP balance cohort (teal) have decreased from 18% to 15.41% over the same period.

XRP supply distribution among its top two whale cohorts. Source: Santiment

This shift suggests that mid-sized XRP investors either sold their holdings to those in the 1 billion-plus XRP cohort or have accumulated XRP to join this larger balance group. Either way, it shows that the richest XRP whales have accumulated tokens during 2024’s price dip, indicating they are long-term bullish on the Ripple crypto market.

Why Are XRP Whales Accumulating, Though?

Two key reasons explain why XRP whales have increased their holdings since March.

First, it is the anticipation that Ripple’s ongoing legal lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will conclude in the coming months, as FXEmpire covered here. The aftermath of the potential SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit settlement could be the SEC’s clearance to a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S., according to Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse.

Second, XRP has reached its most oversold levels against Bitcoin (BTC) on weekly timeframes, indicating that the market anticipates capital rotation from BTC to XRP markets in the coming weeks or months.

For instance, XRP/BTC’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) is treading below 30, an oversold area that could trigger a rebound period next. That is akin to what happened in the April-September 2019 session, which led to a 50%-plus XRP price rebound, as shown below.

XRP/BTC weekly price performance chart. Source: TradingView

An oversold bounce in the XRP/BTC market this year could push the pair toward 0.00001156 BTC, a level coinciding with the 50-week exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.

This capital rotation sentiment from the Bitcoin market is further visible in CoinShares’ latest weekly report on crypto fund net flows.

Crypto funds net flows. Source: CoinShares

For instance, the Bitcoin-based investment funds witnessed over $621 million worth of outflows in the week ending June 15. In comparison, altcoins outperformed, with Ethereum funds attracting $13.1 million and XRP funds attracting $1.1 million.

About the Author

Yashu Gola is a journalist focusing on cryptocurrency markets since 2014. He writes for Cointelegraph and CoinChapter and has previously served as the chief editor for NewsBTC.

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