XRP Price Pattern Déjà Vu: Fractal Hints Another 50% Price Rally Ahead?

XRP (XRP) has dropped by over 35% three months after hitting its multiyear high at around $3.66.

As of Nov. 6, the token was forming a death cross between its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), indicating more pain ahead for bulls. Nonetheless, the downside may exhaust at some point, as an onchain indicator hints that traders are buying the dips.

XRP Balance Across Exchanges Falls At Record Pace

XRP has seen a sharp reduction in exchange balances over the past two months, with nearly 1.43 billion tokens withdrawn since September, according to Glassnode data.

Interestingly, the scale of these outflows mirrors the November–December 2022 period, a historic accumulation phase that preceded a multi-year uptrend.

Back then, XRP exchange balances plunged as whales and long-term holders scooped up tokens near $0.34, setting the stage for a recovery that accelerated in late 2024 after Donald Trump’s US election victory revived risk appetite and liquidity across crypto markets.

Today, the pattern looks familiar.

Exchange reserves are collapsing to multi-year lows while the XRP price holds around the $2.00–$2.50 range. This divergence suggests growing investor confidence, as tokens are being moved from liquid trading venues into long-term storage.

Fractal Setup Points to 25-50% Rally Next

XRP’s price structure in late 2025 closely mirrors the descending channel that preceded its explosive rally in late 2024.

Back then, XRP spent months consolidating inside a downward channel, marked by a death cross between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. The structure initially looked bearish but resolved sharply higher, sending XRP from around $0.48 to $3.69 within weeks.

The current setup appears strikingly similar. Once again, XRP trades within a descending channel following a new death cross, while its daily RSI shows a mild bullish divergence near the 40 zone.

Historically, such technical exhaustion signals have preceded strong reversals. A breakout from the current channel could initially target the 0.382–0.5 Fib zone ($2.46–$2.09), and possibly extend toward $3+ if momentum strengthens.

That amounts to another 25-50% gain in the coming months.