XRP Price Prediction: Strong US Retail Sales to Deliver Sub-$0.30

Key Insights:

• XRP rallied by 3.09% on Thursday, supported by the broader crypto market, which continued to brush aside US inflation numbers.
• However, XRP and the broader market are unlikely to ignore US retail sales figures due later today.
• Technical indicators are bullish, with XRP sitting above the 100-day EMA.

On Thursday, XRP rose by 3.09%. Following a 3.95% rally from Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.3335.

The choppy session saw XRP slide to a low of $0.3123 before making a move. Avoiding the First Major Support Level at $0.3090, XRP rallied to a high of $0.3336.

XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level at $0.3316 to end the day at $0.3335.

Investor reaction to June wholesale inflation figures from the US hit riskier assets before a late rebound.

FOMC member chatter delivered the upside, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller stating his support for a 75-basis point rate hike. The latest consumer price numbers had pushed the markets into the pricing in of a 100-basis point rate hike following some hawkish FOMC member chatter.

XRP Sits in the Hands of US Retail Sales and FOMC Member Chatter

This morning, XRP joined the broader crypto market in positive territory. The upside comes despite plenty of investor uncertainty over the next Fed rate hike.

Recent economic indicators have supported a more hawkish move this month to begin bringing inflation back to target.

Fears of a US recession have added to the market angst, as investors face the prospect of a 100-basis point rate hike.

Later today, US retail sales figures could decide how far the Fed will be willing to go. Upbeat consumer spending figures would support a 100-basis point rate hike.

Market angst over Fed monetary policy and the economic outlook has also muted the impact of court rulings from the SEC v Ripple case.

On Tuesday, the US courts denied the SEC motion to protect the William Hinman speech-related documents under the attorney-client privilege. The ruling in favor of Ripple tilted the scales against the SEC.

There has been no major news since the Tuesday ruling to draw investor attention away from the US economic calendar. Investors expect the SEC to appeal the decision, which limited the impact of the ruling on XRP and the broader crypto market.

XRP Price Action

At the time of writing, XRP was up 1.53% to $0.3386.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.3317 before striking a high of $0.3484.

XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3406.  However, coming up against the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3478, XRP fell back to sub-$0.34 levels.

Technical Indicators

A hold above the $0.3265 pivot would support another breakout from R1 at $0.3406 to bring R2 and $0.35 back into play.

XRP would need weak US retail sales figures to support a breakout from the morning high of $0.3484.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, XRP could test resistance at $0.36 and the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $0.3691.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3193 into play.

In the event of an extended sell-off, XRP would likely test the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3052 and support at $0.30.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.2839.

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) send a bullish signal.

At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.3441. Today, the 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, XRP price positive.

A bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a breakout from the morning high to target $0.36.

However, an XRP fall through the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.3288, would bring the Major Support Levels into play.