Zcash Price Forecast: ZEC Eyes 30% Dip Despite Grayscale’s Endorsement

Zcash (ZEC) is flashing a classic exhaustion setup, even as Grayscale argues the market still undervalues its privacy edge.

ZEC Risks 30% Drop If $230 Resistance Holds

Zcash is facing a critical technical test after failing repeatedly to secure a decisive close above its 50-week exponential moving average near $230 throughout March.

As of Tuesday, ZEC was making another attempt to reclaim that level, but the broader chart structure remained fragile.

The token has cooled notably after its explosive rally earlier this year, and the latest consolidation just below the red-wave resistance suggests buyers are struggling to regain control.

That raises the likelihood of a deeper pullback in the days or weeks ahead.

From a technical standpoint, repeated rejection at the 50-week EMA typically points to fading momentum, especially after a steep upside move.

In ZEC’s case, the next major support sits at the 100-week EMA, shown by the purple wave near $166. A decline toward that level would amount to a roughly 30% drop from current prices.

Escalating tensions around the US–Iran war have kept oil prices elevated, increasing the risk of sticky inflation and tighter-for-longer monetary conditions.

For speculative assets like ZEC, that usually means a weaker risk appetite and less room for breakout continuation near key resistance zones.

Grayscale says Zcash may be underpriced in an AI-surveillance world

Grayscale has outlined a more constructive long-term thesis for Zcash

In a new report, the asset manager argued that the market may be underpricing Zcash’s financial privacy utility in a future increasingly shaped by artificial intelligence and digital surveillance.

Grayscale said Zcash’s optional shielding features could become more valuable as AI makes it easier to trace wallets, monitor transfers, and analyze financial behavior on transparent blockchains.

The firm also pointed to improving on-chain usage. As of March 16, shielded transactions accounted for about 86.5% of Zcash’s transaction count, while shielded supply stood near 5.16 million ZEC.

Grayscale added that new capital is flowing into the ecosystem to support wallet development and mining, suggesting Zcash may be entering a “new chapter.”

ZEC may remain exposed to a correction toward $166 in the near term, but its longer-term repricing case could strengthen if investors begin treating privacy as a core monetary feature rather than a niche crypto add-on.