Kazakhstan Interest Rate

The National Bank of Kazakhstan maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 16.5% during its meeting on June 5, 2025, as widely anticipated, to support the disinflationary process. Policymakers said elevated inflation and upside risks justify maintaining a restrictive policy stance, which could persist through the end of the year, to stabilize expectations, curb price acceleration, and guide inflation toward the 5% target. The annual inflation rate in Kazakhstan accelerated for the sixth straight month to 11.3% in May 2025, the highest since September 2023 and remaining well above the bank's target. According to the updated forecasts, inflation is now projected to reach 10.5–12.5% in 2025, moderate to 9.5–11.5% in 2026, and decrease further to 5.5–7.5% by year-end 2027. Meanwhile, stronger domestic demand and higher investment levels have led to an upward revision of Kazakhstan’s economic growth forecast to 5–6% for 2025 and 4–5% for 2026.