Ukraine Interest Rate

The National Bank of Ukraine held its key policy rate at 15.5% in its December meeting, maintaining borrowing costs at their highest level since November 2023. The decision reflects ongoing inflationary risks and uncertainties surrounding external financing. In November, both consumer and core inflation eased to 9.3% year-on-year, largely due to an increase in food supply from the new harvest, but remained well above the 5% target. Despite a disinflationary trend since June, inflation expectations remain elevated. Domestic economic activity and credit growth have remained robust, with lending expanding at an annual rate above 30%, indicating that no additional stimulus is needed. On the external side, Ukraine has received USD 45.8 billion in official financing this year, with another USD 5 billion expected by year-end, although funding plans for 2026–2027 remain uncertain. The ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict continues to pose significant risks to both inflation and economic growth.