United States Inflation Expectations

Last Release

May 31, 2025

Actual

3.2

Units In

3.6

Frequency

Monthly

Next Release

Jul 08, 2025

Time to Release

27 Days 15 Hours

Highest	Lowest	Average	Date Range	Source
6.8 Jun 2022	2.33 Oct 2019	3.35 %	2013-2025	Federal Reserve Bank of New York

In the US, inflation expectations refer to median one year ahead expected inflation rate. The expectations are based on the nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,200 heads of households.

Latest Updates

US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead declined to 3.2% in May 2025, from 3.6% in April, the lowest in three months. Year-ahead commodity price change expectations decreased for gas (-0.8 percentage point to 2.7%), medical care (-1.3 percentage points to 7.4%), college education (-1.6 percentage points to 7.5%), and rent (-0.6 percentage point to 8.4%). On the other hand, the year-ahead expected change in food prices increased by 0.4 percentage point to 5.5%, the highest level since October 2023. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the three-year horizon declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0%, and inflation expectations for the five-year ahead horizon declined by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6%.