United States Inflation Expectations

Last Release

Jul 31, 2025

Actual

3.1

Units In

Frequency

Monthly

Next Release

Sep 08, 2025

Time to Release

30 Days 15 Hours

Highest	Lowest	Average	Date Range	Source
6.8 Jun 2022	2.33 Oct 2019	3.35 %	2013-2025	Federal Reserve Bank of New York

In the US, inflation expectations refer to median one year ahead expected inflation rate. The expectations are based on the nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,200 heads of households.

Latest Updates

US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 3.1% in July 2025, from 3% in June. Year-ahead commodity price expectations decreased for gas (by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%), for the cost of medical care (by 0.1 percentage points to 9.2%), for the cost of college education (by 0.4 percentage points to 8.7%), and for rent (by 2.1 percentage point to 7%). Median year-ahead expected change in food prices remained unchanged at 5.5%. Also, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for five-year-ahead horizon rose to 2.9% from 2.6%. They remained steady at the three-year-ahead horizon at 3.0%.