United States Inflation Expectations

Last Release

Sep 30, 2025

Actual

3.4

Units In

3.2

Frequency

Monthly

Next Release

Nov 07, 2025

Time to Release

29 Days 3 Hours

Highest	Lowest	Average	Date Range	Source
6.8 Jun 2022	2.33 Oct 2019	3.35 %	2013-2025	Federal Reserve Bank of New York

In the US, inflation expectations refer to median one year ahead expected inflation rate. The expectations are based on the nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,200 heads of households.

Latest Updates

US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 3.4% in September 2025, the highest in five months, compared to 3.2% in August. Consumers see higher prices for food (+0.3 percentage point to 5.8%, the highest since March 2023), gas (+0.3 percentage point to 4.2%), medical care (+0.5 percentage point to 9.3%), and rent (+1.0 percentage point to 7.0%). On the other hand, the year-ahead expected change in the cost of a college education declined by 0.8 percentage point to 7%. Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3% for the fourth consecutive month. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the five-year horizon also increased to 3% from 2.9% while those for the three-year-ahead horizon held at 3%. Elsewhere, earnings growth expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4%, the lowest reading since April 2021. Unemployment expectations increased 2.0 percentage points to 41.1% and the median expected growth in household income was unchanged at 2.9%.