United States Inflation Expectations

Last Release

Aug 31, 2025

Actual

3.2

Units In

3.1

Frequency

Monthly

Next Release

Oct 07, 2025

Time to Release

27 Days 15 Hours

Highest	Lowest	Average	Date Range	Source
6.8 Jun 2022	2.33 Oct 2019	3.34 %	2013-2025	Federal Reserve Bank of New York

In the US, inflation expectations refer to median one year ahead expected inflation rate. The expectations are based on the nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,200 heads of households.

Latest Updates

US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 3.2% in August 2025, the highest in three months, from 3.1% in July. Median year-ahead expected change declined for the cost of college education (by 0.9 percentage point to 7.8%), for rent (by 1.0 percentage point to 6.0%), and for the cost of medical care (by 0.4 percentage point to 8.8%). Median year-ahead price change expectations remained unchanged for gas (3.9%) and food (5.5%) for the third consecutive month. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the three-year and five-year horizons were unchanged at 3% and 2.9%, respectively.