S&P 500: Indices Mixed as Fed Decision Nears and Powell’s Guidance Takes Center Stage

Stocks Hold Near Flat as Traders Brace for Fed Decision

U.S. equities were largely unchanged on Tuesday as traders held positions steady ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement. Treasury yields and the dollar ticked higher after labor market data showed job openings rose modestly in October while hiring remained soft, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut.

Nvidia slipped 0.7% after Washington said it will allow the company’s H200 processors to be exported to China with a 25% fee.

The Dow fell 0.38% to 47,560.29, the S&P 500 eased 0.09% to 6,840.51, and the Nasdaq gained 0.13% to 23,576.49. Investors maintained a cautious stance, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing an 89.6% probability of a 25-basis-point cut.

How Are Global Central Banks Setting the Tone?

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates on Wednesday, though policymakers remain divided. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, a top contender for Fed chair, reiterated support for continued easing. That raised new questions about medium-term policy direction and how the Fed may balance growth concerns with inflation risks.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady but signaled that policy could tighten if inflation remains sticky, prompting the Australian dollar to firm to $0.6639. The Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank are also expected to keep rates unchanged later this week.

What’s Driving Market Moves Across Sectors?

Sector performance was mixed, with Energy up 0.69% to lead gains as U.S. crude settled at $58.25 and Brent at $61.94. Technology added 0.17%, while Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary posted small advances. Defensive groups lagged, with Health Care down 0.98% and Industrials off 0.73%. Real Estate slipped 0.61% as yields ticked higher, with the 10-year Treasury rising to 4.182%.

Which Stocks Stood Out?

Newmont jumped 5.72% and Applovin gained 5.05%, leading S&P and Nasdaq advancers. Private-equity names Apollo, KKR, and Blackstone also posted strong gains.

On the downside, AutoZone slid 7.17%, while Campbell Soup, JPMorgan, O’Reilly, and Uber recorded sizeable drops as investors rotated selectively ahead of the Fed.

Market Forecast

Short-term sentiment leans cautiously bullish. A widely expected Fed cut should help stabilize risk appetite, but divided policymaker views and firmer global central bank commentary may keep markets tight. Traders will focus on the Fed’s forward guidance for confirmation of sustained easing.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.