Bitcoin and a Month Few Would Have Expected

It’s a bearish start to the day as Bitcoin struggles to recover to $6,500 levels, with heavier losses on the cards should the tight ranges continue.
Bob Mason
Bitcoin Strategy

At times it may have been painful to watch, while at other times bewildering, but the vicious movements of more than $1,000 in the space of an hour are becoming sorely missed by traders and analysts the world over, as the lack of volatility spreads across the broader market, making the cryptomarket almost as stable as the Forex markets.

For the current month, with Bitcoin down just 1.88%, the Aussie Dollar has had as bad a month against the U.S Dollar, down 1.85, with the EUR, the Kiwi and the Pound not far behind. For the braver, looking across at the global equity markets, an 8.76% slide in the S&P500 and a whopping 10.93% tumble in the NASDAQ this month are the types of moves that Bitcoin and the broader market in particular would have been more accustomed to and not just in a month but on a given day.

There is plenty of talk about the cryptomarket environment and volatility returning to the days of old, with there even being suggestions of a bounce back in volatility ahead of institutional money rolling into Bitcoin and, while this may seem reasonable, for now it seems hard to identify a catalyst that would reignite Bitcoin and the broader market.

Saturday saw Bitcoin fall by 0.51% following a lacklustre 0.06% rise on Friday, to end the day at $6,498, Bitcoin’s lowest end of day value since 14th October’s $6,327.6 and perhaps of greater significance, it’s first ending price outside of $6,500 levels since 18th October’s $6,613.3, suggesting that a downward bias remains.

The only good news for Bitcoin and the broader market will be the fact that the slide in volatility and lack of price action will be deemed as a positive by the SEC and even institutional investors, though how long the low vol environment persists remains to be seen, with another volatility spike just a hack or a manipulation away.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.12% to $6,492.4, with Bitcoin’s hitting reverse off the back of a start of a day morning high $6,500.2, resistance proving to be on the rise at $6,500 following Bitcoin’s failure to break out and hold above $6,500 levels over the last 9 trading days.

Unsurprisingly, in spite of the early losses, it’s been another range bound start to the day, with Bitcoin falling to a morning low $6,490.8 before finding support, the day’s major support and resistance levels left untested.

For the day ahead, a move through the morning high to $6,512 would support a run at the day’s first major resistance level at $6,546.37 before any pullback, the day’s second major resistance level at $6,594.73 unlikely to be in play through the day.

Failure to move back through to $6,500 levels and hold above $6,512 by the early afternoon could see Bitcoin take a bigger hit in the day, with a pullback through the morning low to $6,480 levels bringing the day’s first major support level at $6,463.27 into play before any recovery, heavier losses unlikely barring materially negative news hitting the wires.

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