Bitcoin – The Bears Are Looking to Step In

Bitcoin’s back in the red through the early morning, which could spell an end to the recent run of gains.
Bob Mason

Bitcoin gained 1.29% on Thursday, following Wednesday’s 0.75% rise, to end the day at $7,474.6, marking a 6th consecutive day of gains, which is in stark contrast to the broader market that has hit reverse since the early part of the week rally.

An early dip to an intraday low $7,281.4, coming off the back of a late reversal on Wednesday, saw Bitcoin hold above the day’s first major support level at $7,218 and, more importantly, the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,155, to continue supporting the near-term bullish trend formed at late June’s swing lo $5,755, with Bitcoin having hit a new swing high $7,588 on Wednesday.

Following the upward trend, the Bitcoin bulls have certainly become vocal once more with the talk of Bitcoin hitting $50,000 levels by the year end amongst the more bullish forecasts, though plenty of uncertainty remains on how heavy handed certain key governments and regulators will be on the cryptomarket and crypto exchanges.

The good news for now is that both the FSB and FED Chair Powell have made comments that suggest the cryptomarket needs far less oversight than the news wires and the less crypto friendly politicians have suggested, with much of the hype surrounding money laundering and even the financing of criminal activities having driven market expectation on what lies ahead. The jury is still out on to what extent the cryptomarket is involved fraudulent and crime related activities and with the nature of the beast, the jury may well never come back.

Perhaps the most positive move that governments and regulators could or should make would be to introduce minimum standards in addition to the KYC and anti-money laundering requirements, with minimum standards including the introduction of minimum security levels for crypto exchanges that would bring an end to, or at least significantly reduce, the number of hacks that is reportedly funding certain regimes, including North Korea and possibly Iran.

Either way, once the dust settles after the summer and key jurisdictions have rolled out their regulatory requirements, the cryptomarket may finally be able to evolve into a market that differentiates between product innovation and success of transition from concept to real world and most importantly adoption.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.91% to $7,405.7 in what’s been a relatively range bound start to the day, a start of the day fall to a morning low $7,369.9 steering clear of the first major support level at $7,317.33 before moving back through to $7,400 levels.

The morning’s high $7,474.6 came at the start of the day, leaving Bitcoin short of the first major resistance level at $7,595.93, while Bitcoin continued to hold above the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,155 despite the reversals seen across the other majors.

For the day ahead, a move back through to the morning high would support at run at $7,500 levels to bring the first major resistance level at $7,595.93 into play, while we will expect Bitcoin to continue to fall shy of $7,600 levels through the day in the event of any rebound.

Failure to move back through the morning high later in the day could see Bitcoin pullback through to $7,300 levels and test the day’s first major support level at $7,317.33 before any recovery, sub-$7,000 levels unlikely to be in play, with support at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,155 likely to prevent any more significant losses in the event of a sell-off.

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