Forex Daily Recap – AUD/USD Weakness Sustained, Despite Unchanged RBA Rates at 1%
The Aussie pair kept the downtrend rally intact that had triggered since the start of 2019. The primary focus of the day remained over the RBA Interest Rate Decision. The policymakers held the rates at an all-time low near 1%, forecasting the trade tensions to worsen, compelling for a rate cut before year-end. Earlier, the RBA had executed quarter-point cuts in June and July. Meanwhile, RBA Governor Philip Lowe justified that the stance of keeping lower rates for longer-term borrowings would boost employment growth and inflation.
After consecutive 12 negative trading sessions in a row, the AUD/USD pair appeared to showcase positive closing today. The pair had already breached and moved below the support lines stalled near 0.6865 and 0.6832 levels. Notably, the south side heading pair might encounter a robust support line near 0.6745 on moving further downwards. While strong SMAs had already stemmed on the upper vicinity above the trading pair, confining pair’s upside movements. Meantime, the Australian June Trade Balance data reported 8,036 million over the consensus estimates of around 6,000 million. The June Imports recorded -4% over 1% last data. Also, June Exports came around 1% over 4% previous statistics. Furthermore, on the economic calendar, the Q3 QoQ RBNZ Inflation Expectations came out 1.86% over 2.01% previous figure.
Ninja was struggling throughout the last month to make a breakthrough out of the sturdy 109.055 resistance level. However, the efforts appeared to go in vain with bears dragging the pair downwards on August 1. Today, after three consecutive negative sessions, the USD/JPY pair displayed slight upward drifts, signaling recovery. Anyhow, this retracement price action seemed to take a halt near 38.2% Fibonacci level or 106.875 level.
Even if the pair had made a downfall on Tuesday’s trading session, then that would have activated the stable 104.656 support handle. On the economic docket, the June Japanese Leading Economic Index came out 93.3 points, 1.82% lower than the market expectations of around 95.0 points. Despite that, the June Coincident Index reported 100.4 points in comparison to the street estimates of 98.8 points.
Greenback was forming a rising wedge bearish pattern since last month. Nevertheless, the US Dollar Index took a bounce off from the significant 97.26 support mark and the lower portion of the aforementioned wedge.
If the pair had showcased a breakdown, moving out of the wedge pattern, then that would have enabled fresh challenge over the firm 96.74 support handle. Moreover, on the downside, the support conflux consisting of the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMA ensured to limit the pair’s daily losses. During the European trading session, the June JOLTS Job Openings recorded 7.348 million over 7.317 million estimates. Also, the August MoM IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism provided some upbeat data this time, luring the Greenback buyers.
After marking the daily opening near 1.1203 level, the EUR/USD pair formed a spinning top candlestick pattern by day end.
Robust resistance confluence consisting of the 50-day and 100-day SMA confined the pair’s upside. Earlier the day, German June Factory Orders came out, revealing some upbeat statistics. The June MoM German Factory Orders reported a 4.5% growth over the previous -2.0% estimates. Also, the YoY Factory Orders recorded -3.6% over -7.0% forecasts.