Monetary Policy Takes Center Stage once more, with the BoE and the ECB in Action

Earlier in the Day:

It was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar, the Japanese Yen, and the Aussie Dollar were all in action early this morning.

For the Kiwi Dollar

In the 3^rd quarter, the NZ economy contracted by 3.7% versus a forecasted 4.5% contraction. The economy had expanded by 2.4% in the previous quarter.

According to NZ Stats,

• The contraction was the 2^nd largest since the series began in 1986, with COVID-19 restrictions hitting economic activity.
• Four industries with the largest falls in activity were retail, accommodation, and restaurants; manufacturing; construction; and arts and recreation.
• Household consumption expenditure slid by 7.5%, with investment expenditure down 5.3%.

The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.67818 to $0.67815 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.18% to $0.6772.

For the Japanese Yen

Japan’s trade deficit widened from ¥68.5bn to ¥954.8bn. Economists had forecast a widening to ¥675.0bn.

According to figures released by the  Ministry of Finance,

• Exports rose by 20.5% year-on-year in November, which was up from 9.4% in October.
• Imports jumped by 43.8%, however, which was up from 26.7% in October.

By Country,

• To China, exports were up 16.0%, with exports to Australia up 46.2% year-on-year.
• Exports to the U.S rose by 10.0%, with exports to Western Europe rising by 10.3%.
• Imports from China increased by 17.2%, with imports from the U.S up 43.0%.
• From Western Europe, imports increased by 35.95 year-on-year.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥114.149 to ¥114.164 against the Dollar in response to the numbers that preceded PMI numbers.

According to prelim figures for December, Japan’s Manufacturing PMI slipped from 54.5 to 54.2. The Services PMI declined from 52.1 to 51.1.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥114.144 to ¥114.230 against the Dollar in response to the numbers. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.06% to ¥114.110 against the U.S Dollar.

For the Aussie Dollar

Employment figures for November drew plenty of interest this morning.

According to the ABS,

• Employment surged by 366.1k in November versus a forecasted 205.0k increase. In October, employment had fallen by 46.3k.
• Full employment rose by 128.3k, reversing a 40.4k fall from October.
• As a result of the sharp increase in hiring, the unemployment rate fell from 5.2% to 4.6%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71553 to $0.71768 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.04% to $0.7172.

The Day Ahead

For the EUR

It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Prelim December private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be in focus. Expect plenty of influence.

Other stats include wage growth and trade data for the Eurozone that should have a muted impact on the EUR.

On the monetary policy front, the ECB monetary policy decision and press conference will be key, however. The markets will be looking for any shift in view on inflation and how the ECB anticipates the omicron strain and inflation impacting the economic recovery.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.04% to $1.1285.

For the Pound

It’s another busy day ahead on the economic calendar. On the economic data front, prelim December private sector PMIs will be in focus. Expect greater interest in the services PMI.

Of greater influence, however, will be the BoE’s monetary policy decision, vote count, and forward guidance. Rising COVID-19 cases across the UK has dampened expectations of a hawkish BoE. Expect any hawkish chatter to drive demand for the Pound.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.05% to $1.3255.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead. Philly FED Manufacturing PMI, industrial production, jobless claims, private sector PMIs are due out.

Expect the jobless claims and services PMI to be key. On the monetary policy front, FOMC member chatter will also need considering.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.10% to 96.416.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic data front. Wholesale sales figures for October are due out later today. We don’t expect Loonie sensitivity to the numbers, however.

At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.11% to C$1.2848 against the U.S Dollar.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.