Bitcoin (BTC) Faces Pressure as BlackRock ETF Outflows Surge

From record highs above $125,000 to sub-$100,000, Bitcoin’s (BTC) sharp reversal underscores how macro headwinds are driving market sentiment. Bitcoin faced intensifying selling pressure as the US government shutdown and rising US stagflation risk triggered a flight-to-safety.

US job cuts signaled a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions. However, inflation expectations remained elevated, raising concerns over the Fed prioritizing inflation over the labor market, potentially derailing the US economy.

Challenger job cuts soared from 54.064k in September to 153.074k in October, signaling a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions. Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations slipped from 3.4% in September to 3.2% in October, remaining well above the Fed’s 2% target.

ETF Outflows Deepen as Bitcoin Slides

Risk aversion sent BTC below the $100,000 psychological support level for the first time since June 2025, as BTC-spot ETF issuers reported a second consecutive week of outflows. The US BTC-spot ETF market reported $1.21 billion in weekly net outflows in the reporting week ending Friday, November 7, after outflows of $799 million the previous week.

According to Farside Investors, key weekly flows included:

• BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net outflows of $581 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net outflows of $438.4 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reported net outflows of $129 million.
• Meanwhile, Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) reported combined net inflows of $26.3 million.
• In total, six ETF issuers reported weekly net outflows, while two reported weekly inflows.

Notably, BTC has fallen 7.6% in the week ending Sunday, November 9, as spot ETF outflows added to the gloom. Despite the negative sentiment, BTC-spot ETF issuers remain above water year-to-date, potentially limiting further outflows.

NovaDius Wealth Management President Nate Geraci commented:

“Average btc cost basis across *all lifetime* inflows into spot btc ETFs is approx. $89,600. Current btc price roughly $100,000.”

US Shutdown Adds to Market Stress

The prolonged shutdown has heightened investor uncertainty, adding pressure to risk assets such as Bitcoin. The US government shutdown entered its 38th day on Saturday, November 8. Notably, BTC climbed to an October 6 record high of $125,761 before briefly sliding to sub-$100,000 levels since the shutdown.

Despite heavy losses, several market strategists, including Tom Lee, remained bullish on BTC’s outlook.

FundStrat Capital Chief Investment Officer Tom Lee spoke to CNBC, stating:

“The October 10 deleverage was the biggest in history, and that means there are still ripple effects being felt even two weeks later. There has been a DeFi protocol streamer that actually reported a pretty sizeable loss and that created further ripple effects, and that’s what happened yesterday, along with this thing called the balancer hack. So, I’d say it’s probably still a couple more weeks.”

Key Week Ahead: Capitol Hill and the Fed in Focus

The week ahead sets the stage for a pivotal week for BTC and the broader crypto market. US economic data could shift sentiment toward the Fed rate path if the US government reopens. A Senate vote on Monday, November 10, could indicate if lawmakers are any closer to passing a stopgap funding bill.

A reopening could trigger a wave of economic data releases, including inflation and labor market figures. Softer inflation and a weaker labor market would likely revive bets on a December Fed rate cut, boosting demand for BTC and BTC-spot ETFs. However, rising consumer prices and weaker jobs data could fuel stagflation jitters, weighing on risk assets.

Fed speakers will also be in focus, with views on the shutdown, inflation, and the labor market likely to influence sentiment.

Bitcoin’s reversal weighed on demand for Ethereum (ETH).

Ethereum ETF Outflows Deepen as ETH Tests Key Levels

ETH-spot ETF issuers registered net outflows of $508.2 million in the reporting week ending November 7. ETH fell to a November 4 low of $3,058 before rebounding above $3,400. Despite the recovery, ETH has fallen 12.99% in the week ending November 9.

Explore our ETF flow deep-dive to see which tokens are winning the most capital.

Key Drivers for BTC Price Outlook

Considering BTC’s position as a crypto market barometer, several key events will influence BTC’s near-term outlook:

• US Senate votes on stopgap funding bills.
• US economic data.
• FOMC members’ speeches.
• Legislative developments, including the Market Structure Bill’s progress on Capitol Hill.
• US BTC-spot ETF flow trends.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: A US government reopening, support for the Market Structure Bill, dovish Fed commentary, softer US data, and ETF inflows. These factors could drive BTC toward $125,000.
• Bearish Scenario: US Senate impasse continues, rising concerns of US stagflation, legislative roadblocks, hawkish Fed rhetoric, or ETF outflows. These factors could drag BTC below $100,000, exposing the $95,000 support level.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC trades below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish bias.

• Upside Target: A break above the 200-day EMA could signal a move toward the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA may open the door to retesting $115,000.
• On the downside, a break below $100,000 could enable the bears to target $95,000. If breached, $90,000 would be the next key support level.

Track BTC and ETH market trends with our real-time data and insights here.

Ethereum ETF Flows and Key Support and Resistance Levels

Turning to Ethereum, ETH also trades below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a bearish bias.

• Upside Target: A break above the 200-day EMA and the $3,563 resistance level would support a move toward $3,750. A sustained move through $3,750 could bring the 50-day EMA into play.
• On the downside, a drop below the $3,287 support level may pave the way toward the November 4 low of $3,058. If breached, $3,000 would be the next key support level.

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by monitoring macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.