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NAHB: Housing Market Rebounds; Builder Confidence Hits Highest Level in a Year

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Jun 19, 2023, 14:31 UTC

The NAHB said US homebuilder confidence reached its highest level in a year, driven by solid demand and improved supply chains.

NAHB Housing Market Index

Highlights

  • Builder sentiment for single-family homes rose to 55, surpassing expectations of 51.
  • Factors such as solid demand, limited inventory, and improved supply chain efficiency contribute to the positive sentiment.
  • Policymakers must address supply chain issues and regulatory policies to ensure affordable housing availability.

Overview

US homebuilder confidence reached positive territory in June, with builder sentiment for newly built single-family homes rising to 55, surpassing expectations of 51. This marks the sixth consecutive month of increasing builder confidence and the first time sentiment levels have exceeded the midpoint of 50 since July 2022. The housing market’s resurgence can be attributed to solid demand, a lack of existing inventory, and improved supply chain efficiency. Builders are cautiously optimistic, considering the low levels of existing home inventory and gradual improvements in supply chains. However, challenges persist, such as limited access to builder and developer loans, which may result in lower lot supplies as the industry recovers from cycle lows.

US Homebuilding Bottom Forming: Positive Signals for Market Recovery

NAHB Chief Economist: Bottom forming for single-family home building. HMI sales components exceed 60 for the first time in a year. Buyers adapt to interest rate changes. Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle ending, benefiting mortgage rates and financing costs. Home building critical for inflation outlook and monetary policy. Policymakers must tackle supply chain issues, labor shortages, and regulatory policies for effective inflation control.

Builders Reduce Sales Incentives: Positive Trend in Single-Family Home Demand

The June HMI survey also revealed that builders are gradually reducing sales incentives, signaling growing optimism in the demand for single-family homes. The share of builders reducing home prices to bolster sales declined to 25% in June, down from 36% in November 2022. Additionally, the average price reduction in June was 7%, indicating a positive trend compared to December 2022’s 8%. Although 56% of builders offered incentives to buyers in June, this percentage has decreased since December 2022.

Housing Market Resilient: Positive Gains Across Regions and HMI Indices

Overall, the housing market is showing resilience and recovery, with all three major HMI indices experiencing gains in June. The index measuring current sales conditions rose to 61, sales expectations for the next six months increased to 62, and the gauge measuring traffic of prospective buyers climbed to 37. Regionally, the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West all posted gains in HMI scores, reflecting the positive outlook for the housing sector.

Short-Term Outlook:  Strength and Optimism

In conclusion, the US housing market is demonstrating strength and optimism as builder confidence reaches positive territory. Factors such as solid demand, limited inventory, and improved supply chain efficiency contribute to this positive sentiment. Policymakers should prioritize addressing supply chain issues and regulatory policies to ensure the availability of affordable and attainable housing. With improving market conditions and reduced sales incentives, the housing sector shows promising signs for the future.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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