Oil Analysts Try Justify Price Increase

Crude oil prices climbed on Monday with WTI giving back some of those gains on Tuesday to trade at 44.72 falling 24 cents while Brent oil was flat at 50.80. Investors, speculators and analysts have come up with all sorts of reasoning and justification for the price climbs but the truth of the fact is that traders took advantage of lower prices to buy up the commodity as both US crude and Brent Sea oil fell below monthly lows. Strategic investors saw an opportunity to buy at depressed prices and did just that.

Today’s official report on July production from OPEC will serve as some interest to speculators with numbers from both Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Some analysts are reporting that oil prices gained Monday as data showed China imported more crude in July. China imported 30.71 million tons of crude in July, up 29 percent on year to a record high, according to the data released Sunday by General Administration of Customs. The imports data from China, the top crude consumer, boosted the crude market.

Crude prices got support from equity market. US stocks traded higher on Monday, recovering from sharp declines last week. The US dollar dropped against most major currencies on Monday after soaring to a four-month high in the previous session.

Crude oil prices dipped in Asia trade after a late rally that stemmed from a weaker dollar. Oil prices have fallen to multi-month lows, primarily as a glut of supply have swamped the market, but analysts say prices are likely close to bottom. Brent crude oil climbed above a psychological mark of $50 per barrel and is currently trading at $50.06 down 35 cents from the previous settlement.

The US Energy Information Administration will release the latest US stockpiles report for the week to August 7 on Wednesday.  Analysts said dealers will focus on production after it rose 52,000 in the previous week, slightly offsetting a 4.4 million drop in overall crude reserves that indicated healthy demand.

 Capital Economics said the main drivers pressuring oil prices were “signs of a recovery in US production and buoyant OPEC supply”.  

Dealers predict a slowdown in US output — and increased demand during the summer driving season — could whittle down a huge global glut that has been a key reason prices collapsed from a peak of around $120 in June last year.

The Organization of the Petroleum Export Countries decision to maintain its output level at around 30 million barrels a day despite sagging demand is also seen as a reason for the abundant supplies.  The move is seen as an attempt by the producer cartel´s kingpin Saudi Arabia to defend its market share as it fends off competition from US shale oil.