The Week Ahead – Economic Data, the BoC, and the ECB to Keep the Markets Busy

On the Macro

It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with 42 stats in focus in the week ending 11^th June. In the week prior, 80 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

Early in the week, trade data and JOLT’s job opening figures are due out on Tuesday. With continued focus on labor market conditions, expect the job opening figures to be key.

The markets will then need to wait until Thursday for inflation and jobless claim figures.

Following the core PCE price index figures for April, another pickup in inflationary pressure would raise further uncertainty over FED policy.

Labor market conditions will need to continue to improve, however, to justify a move.

Initial jobless claims would, therefore, need to take a tumble to fuel speculation of a near-term move.

In the week, the Dollar ended the week up by 0.12% to 90.136.

For the EUR:

It’s a relatively busy week on the economic data front.

Early in the week, the German economy will be in focus.

Factory orders, industrial production, and trade data are due out Monday through Wednesday.

ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone on Tuesday will also influence.

In the 2^nd half of the week, stats are on the lighter side, leaving the ECB monetary policy decision as the main event on Thursday.

Following assurances from the ECB doves of unwavering support, the markets will be looking for any talk of a tapering to the asset purchasing program.

The ECB’s outlook on inflation and economy will also be key, however.

Barring a marked revision from prelim figures, finalized GDP numbers for the Eurozone should have a muted impact on the EUR early in the week.

The EUR ended the week down by 0.21% to $1.2167.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Early in the week, BRC retail sales figures for May will be in focus. With the UK continuing to reopen, we can expect Pound sensitivity to the numbers.

At the end of the week, trade data and industrial and manufacturing production figures for April will draw interests.

While trade data will influence, expect production figures to be key.

Away from the economic calendar, the markets will also be keeping an eye on COVID-19 news…

The Pound ended the week down by 0.22% to $1.4157.

For the Loonie:

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

On the economic data front, trade data will draw interest on Tuesday. With little else for the markets to focus on, expect plenty of influence from the data.

The main event of the week, however, will be the BoC monetary policy decision.

With the markets expecting the BoC to stand pat on policy, it will come down to the BoC’s outlook on growth. Last time around, the BoC delivered an unexpected boost to the Loonie.

Monthly reports from OPEC and the IEA and the inventory numbers will also provide direction, however.

The Loonie ended the week down 0.07% to C$1.2084 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a quieter week ahead.

Business and consumer confidence figures are due out on Tuesday and Wednesday.

With business investment and consumer spending key to a sustained economic recovery, both sets of numbers will influence.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.35% to $0.7739.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s also a relatively quiet week ahead.

Electronic card retail sales and Business PMI numbers are due out. Following the more hawkish than expected RBNZ, positive numbers would deliver another Kiwi boost.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.50% to $0.7214.

For the Japanese Yen:

Finalized GDP numbers for the 1^st quarter are due out on Tuesday. Barring a marked revision from prelim, however, don’t expect too much influence from the numbers.

At the end of the week, the BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index figures for the 2^nd quarter will draw interest, however.

The Japanese Yen rose by 0.30% to ¥109.52 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

Trade data for May will provide the broader markets with direction at the start of the week.

Recent economic data from China has suggested a topping out…

On Wednesday, inflation figures will also influence. While the markets are expecting a further pickup in inflation, a marked acceleration would test support for riskier assets.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.42% to CNY6.3953 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

There are no major risks to consider in the week ahead.

As always, however, the markets will need to continue monitoring chatter from Capitol Hill and Beijing.

The Iranian presidential election is also nearing…