The Week Ahead – It’s a Mega Week Ahead. Expect Plenty of Action!
On the Macro
For the Dollar:
It’s a big week ahead.
On the economic data front, the week kicks off with the FED’s preferred inflation figures due out on Monday. Personal spending will also influence, following weak consumption figures for the 1st quarter.
April consumer confidence figures will then draw attention on Tuesday, ahead of ADP nonfarm employment change and ISM manufacturing PMI numbers on Wednesday.
Nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs figures will likely be brushed aside on Thursday ahead of a hectic Friday.
Nonfarm payroll and wage growth figures will be in focus along with the market’s preferred ISM non-manufacturing PMI numbers due out on Friday.
A pickup in service sector activity is anticipated along with in excess of 185k NFP numbers. Wage growth will need to pick up, however, with March NFP numbers needing to hover close to figures released last month, to question the market outlook on monetary policy.
Outside of the numbers, the FED’s May monetary policy decision will also drive the Dollar. The focus will be on the FOMC Statement and press conference. Few are expecting talk of a near-term move, which does leave the Dollar exposed.
The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up 0.64% to $98.006.
For the EUR:
Key stats include 1st quarter GDP numbers for France and the Eurozone and German unemployment and consumer sentiment figures due out on Tuesday.
Of less influence will be GDP numbers out of Spain and prelim inflation figures out of Italy and Germany, and the Eurozone’s unemployment rate.
With European markets closed on Wednesday, the focus will then shift to finalized April manufacturing PMI numbers due out on Thursday.
Look out for any revisions to numbers out of Germany and any deterioration in Italy’s manufacturing sector.
German retail sales figures will likely have a more muted impact on the EUR on Thursday.
The EUR/USD ended the week down 0.84% to $1.1151.
For the Pound:
Key stats include April manufacturing, construction, and service sector PMI numbers due out on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
On the data front, service sector figures will have the greatest influence.
Outside of the numbers, Brexit and chatter from Parliament will need to be monitored along with the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision on Thursday.
With the latest extension to Brexit, the BoE is unlikely to be looking to make a move near-term. Of interest will be what BoE Governor Carney has to say on Thursday and the content of the inflation report.
The GBP/USD ended the week down 0.59% at $1.2916.
For the Loonie:
It’s another quiet week ahead on the data front, with key stats limited to February GDP and March RMPI figures due out on Tuesday.
Following last week’s BoC policy decision and dovish outlook, positive numbers would ease some of the pain.
The Loonie ended the week down 0.48% to C$1.3455 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of Asia:
For the Aussie Dollar:
Stats include private sector credit and manufacturing data due out on Tuesday and Wednesday. Of less influence will be new home sales and building approvals due out on Thursday and Friday.
The bears are looking to pin the Aussie Dollar back on hopes of a rate cut. Anything weak in the first half of the week will influence as will market risk appetite and economic data out of China.
The Aussie Dollar ended the week down 1.54% to $0.7042.
For the Japanese Yen:
There are no material stats due out, with the Japanese market closed from Tuesday through to Friday.
While volumes will be on the lighter side, market risk sentiment will influence in a hectic week on the data front. The news wires are talking about the fear of another flash crash…
The Japanese Yen ended the week up 0.30% to ¥111.58 against the U.S Dollar.
For the Kiwi Dollar:
For the Kiwi Dollar, stats include business confidence and employment figures due out on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Of less influence will be March building consent numbers due out on Thursday. With the next RBNZ monetary policy meeting on 8th May, the mid-week stats will have a material impact on the Kiwi Dollar.
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down 0.33% to $0.6662.
Out of China:
April manufacturing PMI numbers due out on Tuesday and Thursday impact market risk sentiment. Forecasts are for a pickup in manufacturing sector activity, which would be positive for riskier assets.
U.S – China Trade War: Trade talks are set to resume on 30th April. Expect plenty of sensitivity to updates from both sides. Neither will be looking for negotiations to collapse, but anything is possible until the ink is dry…
Brexit: A lack of progress leaves the Pound on the defensive. What’s next for Theresa May and a Conservative Party that has imploded?
Spanish Elections: Results won’t be out on Monday, but exit polls will begin to roll out later in the week. The vote count starts on 1st May…
On the monetary policy front,
For the Pound, The BoE will deliver its monetary policy decision on Thursday. Few surprises are expected.
For the USD, the FED will deliver its policy decision on Wednesday. Look out for any hints of a move away from the pause button…
Corporate Earnings: Corporate earnings will pack a punch in the week ahead. Some of the key releases include those for:
Monday, 29th April
- Alphabet Inc.
Tuesday, 30th April
- Apple Inc.
- General Electric Co.
- General Motors Co.
- McDonalds Corp.
- Pfizer Inc.
Wednesday, 1st May
- The Kraft Heinz Co.
- BP PLC. (UK)
- Bank of Scotland PLC. (UK)
- GlaxoSmithKline PLC. (UK)
- HBOS PLC. (UK)
- J Sainsbury PLC. (UK)
Thursday, 2nd May
- Lloyds Banking Group PLC. (UK)
- Volkswagen AG (DAX)
Friday, 3rd May
- BMW (DAX)