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US GDP Growth Slows in Third Quarter Amid Consumer Spending Revision

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Dec 21, 2023, 15:55 UTC

In the third quarter of 2023, U.S. real GDP growth slowed to 4.9%, adjusted down from an initial 5.2% estimate.

US GDP Report

Highlights

  • Real GDP growth revised to 4.9% in Q3
  • Decrease in consumer spending impacts GDP figures
  • Industry contributions boost U.S. economic growth

GDP Growth Revised Downward

The U.S. economy experienced a slower growth rate in the third quarter of 2023, with real GDP increasing by 4.9%, down from the previously estimated 5.2%. This revision was primarily due to a decrease in consumer spending, despite overall growth in several economic sectors.

Detailed Economic Indicators

The downward revision in real GDP growth is contrasted with an 8.3% increase in current-dollar GDP. The price index for gross domestic purchases also saw a slight decrease, indicating subdued inflationary pressures. Notably, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy, was revised downward, reflecting less inflation than initially thought.

Income and Corporate Profits

There was an increase in current-dollar personal income, though slightly lower than previously estimated. Disposable personal income and personal saving also saw revisions. Corporate profits showed an overall increase, with nonfinancial corporations leading the gains.

Industry Contribution to GDP

Analysis of GDP by industry revealed significant contributions from private goods-producing industries, private services-producing industries, and the government sector. Key contributors included nondurable goods manufacturing and construction, with retail trade and information services also playing a significant role.

Short-Term Outlook: Moderate Growth

Considering these revisions and current economic conditions, the short-term outlook suggests continued, albeit moderate, economic growth. The focus now shifts to upcoming GDP releases for the fourth quarter of 2023 and the full year, which will provide further insights into the health of the U.S. economy.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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