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US Retail Sales Jump 3%, Crushing Expectations; Empire State Manufacturing Activity Contraction Softens

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Feb 15, 2023, 19:18 UTC

Advance retail sales for the month increased 3%, compared to a 1.9% forecast. Manufacturing activity in New York contracted at a slower pace.

US Retail Sales

US retail sales jumped more than expected in January, crushing expectations despite a rise in inflation and the Empire State Manufacturing Index also came in much higher than expected.

Both blowout reports highlight the Federal Reserve’s resolve to stay on its interest rate hiking path to cool consumer demand as it tries to tame inflation.

January Retail Sales Show Consumers Persevered Despite Rising Inflation Pressures

Advance retail sales for the month increased 3%, compared to expectations for a rise of 1.9%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Excluding autos, sales increased 2.3%, according to the report, which is not adjusted for inflation. The ex-autos estimate was for a gain of 0.9%.

Contraction in New York Factory Activity Cooled in February – New York Fed

Manufacturing activity in New York contracted in February for a third consecutive month, but at a slower pace compared with January, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York published early Wednesday.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s general business conditions index rose to minus 5.8 in February from minus 32.9 in January, beating the minus 20.3 consensus from economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal.

Market Reaction

The major U.S. stock indexes are rebounding from earlier losses following the release of the better-than-expected retail sales and New York Federal Reserve’s manufacturing reports.

Treasury yields initially rose on the news, but the move has subsided as investors digested the impact of the reports on the path of future Federal Reserve rate hikes.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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