Trading Prediction Markets with Plus500 US

Plus500 US offers prediction markets with the benefits of event contracts from a CFTC regulated exchange. Moreover, they can be traded from the flagship WebTrader platform – one of the best I have worked with in over 5 years of testing brokers. In this article, we’ll walk through how prediction markets work and how to get started.

Entering the Mainstream

Prediction markets have quickly evolved from a niche market to a popular tool. In 2024, Kalshi event contracts covering the US presidential election surged in trading volume. They accurately signaled Trump’s victory, sparking a surge in interest.

The industry went on to reach tens of billions in trading volume in 2025. According to Wall Street analysts, there’s still plenty of room for growth: Bernstein Research recently forecast that prediction market volume will reach $1 Trillion by 2030.

In February 2026, Plus500 US launched prediction markets and currently offers over 300 event contracts. The event contracts are provided by the New York-based Kalshi exchange. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and offers more safety than offshore exchanges.

Trading Prediction Markets with Plus500 US

Now let’s get into the specifics of trading prediction markets. Here’s an example event contract about whether Bitcoin will outperform gold in 2026.

On the first line, you have the question – clear and simple.

Underneath that, you can see a dollar figure in green, which is the open interest. This tells you the dollar value of all the contracts held by traders. It’s useful to know because it reflects the liquidity of a contract. I’ve seen open interest ranging from a couple of thousand dollars to tens of millions. In our example, the open interest is a solid $151,298.

Beneath that, you have the prices of the Yes/No contracts. Event contracts are always priced between $0 and $1, and the price reflects the aggregated market view of the probability that the event will occur or not.

Here’s how it works:

• If you believe that Bitcoin will outperform gold in 2026, you can buy ‘Yes’ at the price of 38.9 cents per contract.
• If you don’t believe Bitcoin will outperform gold in 2026, you can buy ‘No’ at the price of 66 cents per contract.

So what happens next? After the event has taken place, each contract is worth $1 if the outcome is correct and $0 if it’s wrong.

• Let’s imagine you bought 100 ‘Yes’ contracts and you were right. Having bought each contract for 38.9 cents, you paid a total of $38.90. Then you also have to factor in commissions and exchange fees. Plus500 US charges a commission of 1 cent per contract, and there is an exchange fee of 1 cent per contract.
• So for 100 contracts, these fees would amount to $2, making a total outlay of $40.90 ($38.90 plus fees of $2). Your ‘Yes’ contracts are now worth $1 dollar each, so your net profit would be $59.10 ($100 minus $40.90).
• On the other hand, if you had bought 100 ‘Yes’ contracts and you were wrong, you would lose your entire outlay of $40.90, because each ‘Yes’ contract would be worth $0.

If you click on an event, you’ll see a tab that summarizes the rules. In the event contract from our example (Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026), the rules are clear-cut and easy to understand. Even in the case of unusual contracts like ‘Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?’, the rules are simple and concise. The timeline for when the market opens, closes, and when the projected payout takes place is also outlined here.

A feature that I really like in the Plus500 US WebTrader platform is the ease of toggling between futures and prediction markets. Learn more about futures trading at Plus500 US in our 2026 review.

Event Contracts Available at Plus500 US

Plus500 US offers over 300 prediction markets from the Kalshi exchange. Below, I’ve listed the ten categories and an example of an event from each one. I recorded the data on 26 April 2026.

And in case you were wondering how event contracts are distributed at Plus500 US, this table shows you which categories have the most, from top to bottom:

I collected the data on 21 April 2026. We can see from the table that the categories of entertainment, politics, and elections have the most contracts with an impressive diversity of contracts. Still, I felt that the financials category could offer more depth, and was surprised to see only a handful of contracts related to sports.

Practical Strategies for Trading Prediction Markets

A good place to start is by using your expertise to look for mispriced financial markets. For example, you may have an opportunity when a major news event impacts the subject of the event contract, but the event contract itself is slow to adjust.

You can also take advantage of key price levels. I have found that prediction markets are often priced at round numbers like 50 cents, which can act like support and resistance levels.

Markets often overreact to surprising news releases. If the contract pricing looks out of line, you may have a ripe opportunity.

Pros and Cons of Prediction Markets

Now let’s review the main advantages and disadvantages:

The Bottom Line

Prediction markets at Plus500 US are made up of innovative contracts that allow you to speculate on a broad range of event outcomes using a simple Yes/No format and predefined risk.

The Plus500 US WebTrader platform is clean and intuitive, making easy to navigate.. With over 300 event contracts to trade on across 10 categories, there are plenty of markets to work with.

I reflected that the depth of Financial contracts could be better. And while you can view prediction markets via a Plus500 demo account, you cannot currently place a demo event contract trade.

What impressed me the most from my tests was the ease of access to both futures and event contracts from a single login, the smooth experience via WebTrader, and the low costs. I recommend Plus500 US as a great place to start with prediction markets.