How to Trade Prediction Markets with Plus500 US – Practical Guide

Prediction markets are an innovative way to trade on wide-ranging event outcomes, from markets to politics, entertainment news, and even the weather. Trading prediction markets with Plus500 US has major benefits, such as top-tier regulatory oversight and its sleek WebTrader platform.

The Rise of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have evolved from a niche curiosity to a mainstream tool, driven by regulation, technology, and validation in real-world events. In 2024, New York-based Kalshi saw hundreds of millions of dollars in trading activity across its prediction markets covering the US presidential election.

The event contracts covering the elections signaled Trump’s victory before many polls, sparking a surge in mainstream interest. The industry went on to reach tens of billions in trading volume in 2025. In February 2026, Plus500 US launched prediction markets powered by Kalshi for its US retail customer base.

This guide covers what prediction markets are, how they work on the Plus500 US platform, and whether they belong in your trading toolkit. I even cover some strategies specific to event contracts. By the time you’ve finished reading, you’ll be ready to launch into this groundbreaking market.

Getting Started with Prediction Markets

What are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets enable you to trade on the probability of a real-world outcome using event contracts. You choose “Yes” if you think the event will happen and “No” if you think it won’t – as simple as it is.

How do Prediction Markets Work?

Each event contract is priced between 0 and 100, reflecting the aggregated market view of the probability (implied probability) that the event will occur or not.

For example, if a contract is trading at 33 cents, the market is implying a 33% chance that the event will take place.

At settlement, the contract is worth $1 if the outcome is correct and $0 if it’s wrong. If you bought “Yes” at 33 cents and the event happens, you receive $1 (representing a net profit of 67 cents minus any broker/exchange fees). If the event does not happen, the contract expires worthless, and you lose your initial outlay of 33 cents plus any broker/exchange fees.

Can You Make Money Trading Prediction Markets?

Yes, it’s possible to make money trading prediction markets, but to be successful, you’ll need to consistently identify events that are mispriced. Prices quickly reflect new information, and your success will rely on strong news analysis.

Your edge is only as good as your information, and without unique insight and disciplined strategy, it’s unlikely that you’ll be profitable over time.

Prediction Markets vs. Sports Betting – What’s the Difference

In sports betting, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets the odds, while in prediction markets, prices are set by traders in a peer-to-peer marketplace.

Additionally, when trading prediction markets, you can usually buy or sell at any time before settlement, but in sports betting, your position is normally fixed once it is placed.

Prediction Markets vs Options and CFDs

Prediction markets differ from options or CFDs because trades are binary. The maximum profit is reflected in the probability of the event happening, and the maximum loss is capped at the amount paid for the contract.

Unlike options and CFDs, there is no leverage in prediction markets and no possible margin calls.

Are Prediction Markets Legal in the United States?

Yes, prediction markets are legal in the United States when offered through an exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Exchanges like Kalshi operate as CFTC-designated contract markets (DCMs), and their event contracts are treated as regulated financial derivatives.

Plus500 US is a registered Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) and member of the exchange, providing clients access to trade on Kalshi.

Practical Strategies for Trading Prediction Markets

Strategy 1 — Find the Mispriced Market

When a major news event moves the underlying asset but the prediction market hasn’t adjusted yet, there’s an arbitrage opportunity. For example, if Bitcoin rallies 8% overnight but the “BTC above $100k by June” contract is still priced at 40 cents, the market may be slow to reflect the change. Compare the implied probability to your own analysis and take action quickly.

Strategy 2 — Trade Around Key Levels

Prediction markets are often priced around round numbers like 20 cents, 50 cents, and 80 cents, which act like support and resistance levels in other markets. An event contract sitting at 50 cents reflects maximum uncertainty. If news emerges that changes the market outlook, the price could move swiftly up or down, similar to a chart-based breakout or breakdown.

Strategy 3 — Take Advantage of Overreactions to Breaking News

Prediction markets can often overshoot after a surprise news release, as traders react in moments of uncertainty and drive prices beyond what the information justifies. Wait for the volatility to settle and assess the news in relation to the price move. If the contract pricing looks out of line, you may have an opportunity.

Trading Prediction Markets with Plus500 US

Now that we’ve covered the basics, let’s go through some specific examples on the Plus500 US platform.

Looking at the event “Oscar for Best Picture” for the movie The Odyssey, you can buy a “Yes” contract for 24 cents and a “No” contract for 79 cents. This reflects that the market is currently pricing a 24% chance of a win.

If you believe that The Odyssey will win and you buy 100 “Yes” contracts, the cost would be 100 x 24 cents, equaling $24.

Plus500 US adds a commission of 1 cent per contract and an exchange fee of 1 cent. In our example, this totals $2 for the 100 contracts, making an overall cost of $26 ($24 + $2).

If The Odyssey wins, you would receive a payout of $100, with a net profit of $74 ($100 minus your total cost of $26).

On the other hand, if another movie wins, you would receive nothing, and your loss would be the $26 initial outlay.

To recap: if you’re right, you earn $1 per contract minus the cost of the contract and fees. If you’re wrong, you lose the entire cost of the contracts and fees.

Event Contracts Available at Plus500 US

Plus500 US offers over 300 prediction markets through its partnership with Kalshi. Trades clear through Kalshi Klear, a CFTC-registered derivatives clearing organization, with Plus500 US acting as a clearing member. This means that trading takes place in a federally regulated framework.

Below, I’ve listed the ten categories and an example of an event from each one:

• Science and Technology: “Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?”— Yes: 20.1¢ / No: 80¢ — as of 25 March 2026, markets priced a 20.1% chance of the U.S. confirming that aliens exist.
• Politics: “Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?”— Yes: 24¢ / No: 76.5¢ — as of 25 March 2026, markets priced a 24% chance of Trump buying at least part of Greenland.
• Mentions: “Will Powell say productivity during his April press conference?”— Yes: 85¢ / No: 23¢ — as of 25 March 2026, markets priced a 85% chance of Powell saying productivity at his press conference.
• Financials: “Nasdaq-100 close price of 18,999.99 or below at the end of 2026?”— Yes: 18¢ / No: 84¢ — as of 25 March 2026, markets priced a 18% chance of a Nasdaq-100 close price of 18,999.99 or below at the end of 2026.
• Entertainment: “Will Stranger Things release a new episode this year?”— Yes: 13¢ / No: 88¢ — as of 25 March 2026, markets priced a 13% chance of Stranger Things releasing a new episode this year.
• Elections: “Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic nominee for president?”— Yes: 27.4¢ / No: 72.7¢ — as of 25 March 2026, markets priced a 27.4% chance of Gavin Newsom being the 2028 Democratic nominee for president.
• Economics: “Recession this year?”— Yes: 35¢ / No: 67¢ — as of 25 March 2026, markets priced a 35% chance of a recession this year.
• Crypto: “Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?”— Yes: 8¢ / No: 93¢ — as of 25 March 2026, markets priced a 8% chance of Bitcoin being above $200k by 2027.
• Companies: “Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone before 2027?”— Yes: 91¢ / No: 15¢ — as of 25 March 2026, markets priced a 91% chance of Apple announcing a foldable iPhone before 2027.
• Climate and Weather: “Will it rain in NYC on March 25, 2026?”— Yes: 13¢ / No: 93¢ — as of 25 March 2026, markets priced a 13% chance of rain in New York City on 25 March.

The following table shows how event contracts are distributed across each category at Plus500 US:

The categories of politics, entertainment, and weather have the most contracts. Macro-driven categories like elections and economics also take a significant share.

But the financials category lacked depth, and I was surprised to see only a handful of contracts related to sports.

Trading Prediction Markets via the Plus500 WebTrader Platform

You can access prediction markets alongside futures markets within the WebTrader platform and can easily toggle between the two from the top of the screen.

Underneath the event name, you can see the open interest and the Yes/No prices.

In the example highlighted above, the open interest for the event “Will Trump cut corporate taxes this year” is $42,603.

This open interest figure shows the dollar value of all active, unsettled contracts held by traders. Open interest reflects a contract’s liquidity and how easily your order can be filled.

The $42,603 in open interest in the example is relatively light. Some contracts have open interest in the tens of millions.

For example, the contract “2028 Democratic nominee for President?” has active contracts totaling $71,679,928 at the time of this writing, reflecting a highly liquid market less prone to price spikes and slippage.

If you click on the event, you’ll see a tab that summarizes the rules. The timeline is clearly shown in this tab.

The case pictured above shows the timeline from the market open (1/1/2026 6:01 AM) to the market close (after the event occurs) to when you receive your payout if you are right (5 minutes after closing).

Who Are Plus500 US Prediction Markets for?

Prediction markets are great for traders who think in probabilities rather than relying on charts. The main advantages are simplicity, transparency, and capped risk. But these features also have built-in restrictions, like dependence on news and limited upside.

If your strength is interpreting real-world events and pricing probabilities, prediction markets are a powerful tool. But if your edge comes from timing, execution speed, or technical chart patterns, they are less useful.

Good fit for:

• Traders who follow macro headlines and want a direct way to express their view
• News-driven traders who value defined risk and simplicity
• Traders who prefer clear, binary outcomes
• Those looking for the safety of a CFTC-regulated broker over an offshore platform

Not a good fit for:

• Purely technical traders who rely on charts, indicators, or price action
• Scalpers or high-frequency traders
• Traders seeking continuous markets, dynamic position management, and leverage
• Non-US residents, as Plus500 US is only available for US residents

Are Plus500 US Prediction Markets Good for Beginners?

Plus500 prediction markets are beginner-friendly in the simplicity of the Yes/No format, and in that your risk is capped when you enter a trade. The minimum deposit for a live account is $100, and you can place a trade with as little as $1, so the barriers to entry are low. Another plus is that the Plus500 WebTrader platform is well-designed and highly intuitive.

The Bottom Line

Prediction markets at Plus500 are made up of unique contracts that allow you to speculate on a broad range of event outcomes using a simple Yes/No format and predefined risk.

I found the Plus500 WebTrader platform well-designed, and the prediction markets section easy to navigate. With over 300 event contracts to trade on across 10 categories, there are plenty of markets to work with.

I reflected that the depth of Financial contracts could be better, and while you can view prediction markets via a Plus500 demo account, you cannot currently place a demo event contract trade.

Overall, if you are a trader who follows macro trends, politics, or major news events, I rate prediction markets at Plus500 as a valuable resource to explore and ripe with opportunity in the coming years.