0.75 on AUD/USD Seems Too Much For Buyers

AUD/USD was our concern on Friday as the price was approaching a crucial resistance for the 6^th time and usually, when one level is tested for so many times it usually gets broken. Why it was our concern? Because the overall technical situation was better for sellers and generally the price action suggested that we should see the decline here rather than an upswing. Fortunately for the technical traders, the price finally bounced from this resistance and went lower. Ok, so what is the current outlook on the situation on the Aussie?

From the beginning of November we are in the downtrend, recently corrected by the wedge/ ascending triangle formation. The correction met an important resistance on 38.2% Fibonacci (also a 0.75 psychological level) and tested this level six times. All tests successful for sellers, what is more, the one from Thursday ended with a false bullish breakout- usually a strong reversal signal. When we combine all that together we receive a bearish scenario.

Unfortunately our negative outlook on this pair is not complete. What we are missing here is a breakout of the next Fibonacci support on the 23,6% (green area) and the red line connecting recent higher lows and supporting the bullish correction. Once we will have a breakout here, the short side of the market will have a higher chance to succeed.

From the fundamental point of view, Wednesday and Thursday will be important here. Interest rate decision from US and data from the Australian job market will definitely influence the AUD/USD.

This article is written by Tomasz Wisniewski, a senior analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis