10-Yr U.S. Treasury Notes (TY) Futures Technical Analysis – August 21, 2015 Forecast

September 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes are trading slightly higher. Earlier in the session, the market rallied to 128’21, but sellers came in to defend the main top at 128’22, preventing a continuation of the trend and a possible acceleration to the upside.

The direction of the market is being controlled by the action in the U.S. equity markets. If the U.S. stock markets continue to weaken then look for further upside action. A stock market rally today could lead to profit-taking and general weakness.

After failing to take out 128’22, the market broke back below a downtrending angle at 128’15. This is new resistance.

If 128’22 gets taken out with conviction then look for a possible extension of the rally into the April 27 top at 129’05. This is followed by two more tops at 129’16.5 and 129’19.

A sustained move under the downtrending angle at 128’08 will signal the presence of weakness. This could trigger further selling into the uptrending angle at 128’01.5. The next potential targets are a short-term pivot at 127’30, a downtrending angle at 127’26 and a major Fibonacci level at 127’20.5.

Look for a bullish tone on a sustained move over 128’15 and a bearish tone on a sustained move under 128’08. Watch the stock market for direction.