10 YR Yield, USD/CHF, USD/MXN and RUSSELL 2000 Forecast – Risk Appetite Returning on Wednesday?

US 10-Year Yield Technical Analysis

The first chart that I have in front of you is the 10-year yield in the United States, currently at 4.075%. That being said, it seems like there’s a lot of resistance right around 4.11% and if we can break that, I think that will send a flood of money into the US dollar, which has been softening during the trading session.

So, we’ll see if this area holds. If it does, then that means we might get a little bit more risk appetite out there. So, while this isn’t necessarily a chart that you trade, it is one that you should be watching. It gives you an idea as to how the dollar might perform, which has a knock-on effect in multiple other places.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US dollar against the Swiss franc I think is an interesting one to watch right now. We are at the 50-day EMA and clearly near a level of resistance in the form of the area between 0.78 and 0.79.

If we can take out 0.79, probably with those 10-year yields rising, then I think this is set for a massive longer-term buy and hold position. We’ve had a couple of really strong days to give back a little bit here isn’t a huge surprise. I still favor buying this pair despite the fact that the Swiss franc is considered to be a safety currency, mainly due to the interest rate differential and the fact that if you’re patient enough, you should get paid overtime. The Swiss National Bank is getting a little irritated with the behavior of the markets; they also could come in and intervene given enough downward pressure.

USD/MXN Technical Analysis

The US dollar against the Mexican peso is one I’m watching as well, because if we can break below the 17.5 level, then I think that the peso probably drops to the 16.5 level given enough time. If we cannot, this could be the beginning of something big.

When you look at longer-term charts, we are in an area that has been very well supported going back to 2024 and we were, at least until the last couple of days, very oversold.

So, the question now becomes: does 17.5 hold? If it doesn’t, I start selling. If it does, I start thinking about going in the other direction, although I probably won’t do it today.

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis

The final chart is the Russell 2000. This is one of my favorite charts to follow as far as indices are concerned because if the Russell 2000 is doing well, typically the other indices in the United States do well also, some of the more widely played ones such as the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500.

The Russell 2000 is holding significant support near the 2600 level, much like the other indices. So, this lines up with my analysis I did earlier in the Nasdaq 100, the Dow Jones 30, and the S&P 500, especially the S&P 500. This one looks a lot like it. If this thing rallies, I’ll be looking to buy the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 as a reaction. Not that I couldn’t buy this; it’s just that I think the upside is somewhat limited at 2700.