30-Yr U.S. Treasury Bonds (US) Futures Technical Analysis – August 13, 2015 Forecast

On Wednesday, September 30-Year U.S. Treasury posted a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This chart pattern could signal the end to the recent flight-to-safety rally, triggered by China’s devaluation of the Yuan.

The reversal top was confirmed when T-Bonds traded through yesterday’s low at 158’04. Another sign of selling pressure was the failure to hold the price cluster at 158’13.

New resistance is 158’13, 159’21 and 160’22.

The closing price reversal top target is a short-term 50% level at 157’02. The next target is a major 50% level at 156’10 and an uptrending angle at 155’29.

The daily chart opens up to the downside under 155’29. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration into the next 50% target at 154’14 and an uptrending angle at 153’29.

The main trend will turn to down on a break through 153’13.

Look for volatility today following the release of the latest U.S. Retail Sales data at 8:30 a.m. ET. However, the direction of the stock market will likely have a bigger influence on the market. If the rally continues today then look for profit-taking to drive T-Bonds lower. If stocks sell-off again then buyers may come in to support the trend especially around the 50% levels at 157’02 and 156’10.

Based on the overnight price action, look for a bullish tone on a sustained move over 158’13 and a bearish tone on a sustained move under it.