30-Yr U.S. Treasury Bonds (US) Futures Technical Analysis – August 18, 2015 Forecast

September 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but the price action suggests that momentum may be getting ready to shift to the down side. Or, traders may just be waiting for Wednesday’s U.S. consumer inflation data and the Fed’s minutes for guidance.

The short-term range is 160’22 to 157’12. Its 50% level or pivot at 159’01 is controlling the short-term direction of the market.

Currently, T-Bonds are trading on the weak side of the pivot, giving it an early downside bias. Crossing to the weak side of the downtrending angle at 158’22 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. The next downside target is the major Fibonacci level at 158’13.

The Fib level at 158’13 is a potential trigger point for a steep sell-off with the next targets coming in at 157’12 and 157’02. Additional targets include an uptrending angle at 156’21 and a short-term 50% level at 156’10.

A sustained move over the pivot at 159’01 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration into a pair of angles at 159’22 and 159’29. Additional angles come in at 160’06 and 160’14. The latter is the last potential resistance before the 160’22 main top.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 159’01. This will tell us whether the bulls or the bears are in control.