30-Yr U.S. Treasury Bonds (US) Futures Technical Analysis – August 25, 2015 Forecast

September 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds are trading lower on Tuesday after giving back most of its gains on Monday. The market still closed higher, but the close below the day’s mid-point suggest that momentum may be shifting to the downside.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The main trend will turn down on a trade through the swing bottom at 156’30.

The new minor range is 156’30 to 163’01. Its retracement zone at 160’00 to 159’08 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone will likely determine the direction of the market today.

Currently, the market is trading on the weak side of the short-term 50% level at 160’00. A sustained move under this price is likely to trigger a further break into the short-term Fibonacci level at 159’08. This is followed by a minor uptrending angle at 157’30. A longer-term uptrending angle comes in at 157’29.

A failure to hold 157’29 could encourage further selling with 157’14 the next target, followed by the main bottom at 156’30. A trade through 156’30 will change the main trend to down. This could trigger further selling into a major 50% level at 156’10.

A sustained move over the short-term pivot at 160’00 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 160’29. This is followed by a steep uptrending angle at 162’13, yesterday’s high at 163’01 and another steep uptrending angle at 163’20.

The main resistance is a pair of previous major tops at 164’00 and 165’07.

Yesterday’s and today’s price action clearly shows that the direction of the T-Bonds is being controlled by the movement in the stock market. An extremely weak stock market will likely trigger another flight-to-safety rally. If buyers continue to come in to support the stock market then look for the profit-taking break to continue in T-Bonds.