30-Yr U.S. Treasury Bonds (US) Futures Technical Analysis – October 3, 2014 Forecast

December 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds posted a potentially bearish closing price reversal top on Thursday. This could’ve been formed by position squaring ahead of today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, or aggressive shorting by traders expecting a bearish jobs number. Traders are looking for the report to show the economy added 215K new jobs in September. A number greater than this will be bearish for T-Bonds.

The closing price reversal top will be confirmed by a break through 138’31. This move will also put T-Bonds on the weak side of a downtrending angle at 138’30.

The first downside target is an uptrending angle at 137’29, but the best target is the retracement zone at 137’23 to 137’06. A failure to hold at 137’06 could lead to a test of the next angle at 136’21.

Holding above 138’30 will suggest that T-Bonds still have a little life left. This could lead to a rally into an angle at 139’23. Taking out 140’01 will negate the reversal top.

Look for a bearish tone today if 138’30 is taken out with conviction.