Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slide but Remain Range Bound

Natural gas prices slid on Monday declining more than 2%. The weather over the next 6-10 and 8-14 days is expected to be normal and with production on the rise, there is nothing on the horizon to lift prices. NOAA also reported that there is no expected tropical cyclone activity expected in the Atlantic for the next 48-hours. LNG exports decreased week over week according to the Energy Information Administration. Net injections rose last week, but they were less than expected which helped buoy prices.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved lower on Monday but continue to remain range bound. Medium term momentum is neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing near the zero index level with a flat trajectory which reflects consolidation. Short term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 48, which is in the middle of the neutral range and reflects consolidation.

LNG Exports Decline

The EIA reports that LNG exports decrease week over week. Eight LNG vessels with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 28 Bcf departed the United States between June 20 and June 26, according to the Energy Information Administration. On Wednesday, one vessel was loading at the Sabine Pass terminal, one at Corpus Christi, and one at the Cameron terminal. This comes as Net injections into storage totaled 98 Bcf for the week ending June 21, compared with the five-year average net injections of 70 Bcf and last year’s net injections of 71 Bcf during the same week. Working gas stocks totaled 2,301 Bcf, which is 171 Bcf lower than the five-year average and 236 Bcf more than last year at this time.