ADA Price Prediction: IOHK Updates and EMURGO Silence to Test $0.320

Key Insights:

• ADA joined the broader crypto market in the red for a third consecutive day on Saturday, falling by 1.75% to end the session at $0.337.
• Intensifying lawmaker and regulatory scrutiny left ADA on the back foot, with project inflows onto the Cardano network yet to impress.
• The technical indicators remained bearish, bringing sub-$0.320 into play.

ADA fell by 1.75% on Saturday. Following a 2.28% loss on Friday, ADA ended the day at $0.337. ADA avoided a return to sub-$0.330 despite the bearish session.

A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise to an early high of $0.347 before hitting reverse. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.356, ADA slid to a late low of $0.331. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.326, ADA found late support to end the day at $0.337.

IOHK Weekly Development Report Disappoints as the Outlook Darkens

Input Output HK (IOHK) released the Weekly Development Report on Friday. The numbers were disappointing for investors focused on project inflows, with no new projects launching on the Cardano network in the last week. Increasing regulatory and lawmaker scrutiny may be forcing developers to pause project launches. The project numbers in the coming weeks will provide a better picture.

According to the March 3 Weekly Development report,

• 117 projects launched on the Cardano network, unchanged from February 24.
• Projects building on the Cardano network totaled 1,209, up by four from the previous report.
• Plutus scripts totaled 5,953, of which 797 were Plutus V2 scripts. As of February 24, Plutus scripts stood at 5,857.

Before the Vasil hard fork, the number of projects launched on Cardano had stood at 98, with 1,100 projects building on the Cardano network.

Other stats included 62.2 million transactions (Previous Report: 61.8m), 7.87 million native tokens (PR: 7.83 million), and 70,258 token policies (PR: 70,039).

For EMURGO and the planned launch of the USDA algorithmic stablecoin, the SEC’s focus on stablecoins will be of concern. EMURGO slated a Q1 2023 launch of its USDA stablecoins on the Cardano network. A lack of updates would test buyer appetite as the first quarter nears the end.

Silvergate Bank and Lawmakers Pressure ADA and the Broader Market

News of Silvergate Bank terminating its crypto payment network in response to several leading exchanges cutting ties with the crypto-friendly bank was negative. Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Paxos were among the crypto exchanges responding to the bank delaying its annual report filing on Wednesday.

In the Wednesday announcement, Silvergate Bank fueled speculation of a possible collapse, stating,

“The Company is evaluating the impact that these subsequent events have on its ability to continue as a going concern for the twelve months following the issuance of its financial statements.”

The spread of the crypto winter to Main Street could bring more crypto market scrutiny and question the theory that the crypto market is too small to affect financial stability.

Crypto news from the UK added to the bearish sentiment, with UK banks announcing restrictions on crypto purchases with credit cards.

The Day Ahead

Input Output HK (IOHK) updates will continue to draw attention. However, IOHK radio silence would leave ADA in the hands of Binance, FTX, and Silvergate Bank news and further updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case.

Following the increased scrutiny from US lawmakers and the SEC, investors should also monitor lawmaker chatter and regulatory activity.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 0.89% to $0.340. A mixed start to the day saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.335 before rising to a high of $0.343.

Technical Indicators

ADA has to avoid the $0.338 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.346 and the Saturday high of $0.347. A return to $0.345 would support a bullish session. However, Cardano network updates and the broader crypto market would need to provide support.

In case of a breakout, ADA would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.354 and resistance at $0.360. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.370.

A fall through the pivot ($0.338) would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.330 into play. However, barring another extended broad-based crypto sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.320. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.322 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.306.

Today, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent bearish signals.

ADA sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.355. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.346) would give the bulls a run at R2 (0.354) and the 50-day EMA ($0.355). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.355) would leave the Major Support Levels in play. A breakout from the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.