An ETH Return to $1,350 Would Signal a Breakout Afternoon Session

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) have faced a choppy start to the week.
• After a bearish Sunday, the pair have seen failed breakouts as investors hold out for Fed Chair Powell’s testimony mid-week and consider the road ahead.
• The technical indicators remain bearish, suggesting a possible return to 2022 lows.

On Sunday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.62%. Following a 1.89% decline on Saturday, BTC ended the week down by 3.10% to $18,817.

A bullish morning saw BTC rise to a late morning high of $19,188. However, coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,226, BTC slid to a late low of $18,646. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,733 before ending the week at $18,817

Ethereum (ETH) declined by 1.67% on Sunday. Following a 0.75% loss on Saturday, ETH ended the week down 3.00% to $1,295.

A bullish start to the day saw ETH rise to a mid-morning high of $1,337 before hitting reverse. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,342, ETH slid to a late low of $1,269.

ETH fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,299 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,281 before a partial recovery to $1,295.

After decoupling from the NASDAQ 100 on Thursday and Friday, BTC, ETH, and the broader market succumbed to investor jitters over the weekend. Optimism towards a favorable outcome to the SEC v Ripple (XRP) case failed to provide a cushion.

While Fed monetary policy and the economic outlook remain headwinds, regulatory uncertainty persists also.

This morning, the NASDAQ 100 Mini was down 57.75 points, while the crypto market cap is up 0.12% ($1.11 billion) to $887 billion.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.45% to $18,902. A mixed morning saw BTC fall to a low of $18,694 before rallying to a high of $19,333.

BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,121 before sliding back to sub-$19,000.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $18,884 pivot to retarget the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $19,121 and the morning high of $19,333. A BTC move through the morning high would signal a breakout afternoon session.

In the case of an extended rally, BTC should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $19,426 and resistance at $19,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $19,968.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $18,579 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$18,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $18,342 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $17,800.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $19,229.

The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish price signals.

A move through and R1 ($19,121) would give the bulls another run at the 50-day EMA ($19,229) and R2 ($19,426). The 200-day EMA sits at $20,187. However, the slide back from the 50-day EMA could place BTC under selling pressure.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 0.35% to $1,299. A choppy morning saw ETH fall to a low of $1,278 before rising to a high of $1,325.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to move through the $1,300 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,332. With no US economic indicators to consider, ETH would need support from the broader market for a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, ETH could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,368 and resistance at $1,400. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,436.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,264 in play. Barring an extended US session sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,200. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,232 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,164.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,352. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

An ETH breakout from R1 ($1,332) would give the bulls a run at the 50-day EMA ($1,352) and R2 ($1,368). However, market risk sentiment will need to improve materially to support a return to $1,350. Failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave ETH under pressure near-term.