April Comex Gold: Reaction to $1927.60 Sets Early Tone

Comex gold futures are trading lower but stable early Friday after a volatile session, as investors reassessed the situation surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and fresh sanctions against Moscow and the West. The precious metal jumped more than 3% on Thursday to hit its highest level since September 2020 before reversing course to close lower.

At 06:57 GMT, April Comex gold futures are trading $1913.80, down $12.50 or -0.65%. On Thursday, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) settled at $177.21, down $1.08 or -0.61%.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in gold and other precious metals have seen massive inflows as investors rush to shield themselves.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1976.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $1821.10 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. $1976.50 is a new minor top.

The main range is the contract range of $2117.10 to $1682.40. Gold is currently trading inside its retracement zone at $1899.80 to $1951.00 after straddling it the previous session.

The short-term range is $1780.60 to $1976.50. Its retracement zone at $1878.60 to $1855.40 is potential support. The lower or 50% level at $1878.60 was tested successfully on Thursday.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the April Comex gold futures contract early Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1927.60.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1927.60 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the major Fibonacci level at $1951.00. Overtaking this level could lead to a test of yesterday’s high at $1976.50. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the August 6, 2020 main top at $2117.10 the next major target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1927.60 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break with a series of levels at $1899.80, $1878.60 and $1855.40 potential support levels. The latter is the last potential support before the $1821.10 main bottom and a change in trend.