April WTI Crude Oil Hovering Above Major Support at $90.74

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading lower on Friday after giving back earlier gains of nearly 3% on concerns of global supply disruptions from the impact of trade sanctions on major crude and fuel exporter Russia after it invaded Ukraine.

At 11:18 GMT, April WTI crude oil is trading $92.54, down $0.27 or -0.29%. On Thursday, the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) settled at $66.34, up $0.10 or +0.15%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and Iran have been engaged in indirect nuclear talks in Vienna that could lead to the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil sales and increase global supply if a deal on Iran’s nuclear program is reached.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $100.54 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $87.46 will change the main trend to down.

The minor range is $87.46 to $100.54. The market is currently trading on the weak side of its pivot at $94.00, making it intraday resistance.

The longer-term Fibonacci level at $90.74 is support.

The main range is $61.84 to $100.54. If the main trend changes to down then its retracement zone at $81.19 – $76.62 will become the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the April WTI crude oil market on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $94.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $94.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this continues to exert enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the major Fibonacci level at $90.74.

A failure to hold $90.74 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a further break into the main bottom at $87.46. The main trend will change to down on a move through this level. This could trigger a further decline with $81.19 – $76.62 the next major target zone.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $94.00 will signal the return of buyers. Overcoming $96.00 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration into yesterday’s high at $100.54.

Side Notes

Friday’s sell-off is coming dangerously close to last week’s close at $90.21. Taking out this level will put the market lower for the week, and in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The price action suggests some traders are removing the “war premium” after the U.S. and its NATO allies imposed sanctions against Russia that avoided the energy markets.