Are Cocoa Prices Going Higher?

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Published: Nov 26, 2019, 18:17 UTC

Cocoa Futures---Cocoa futures in the March contract is sharply higher this Tuesday afternoon in New York up 66 points at 2664 as I am not involved, but I am certainly not recommending any type of bearish position as that would be counter-trend trading.

Aromatic cocoa, powder and food dessert background

If you are long a futures contract I would place the stop loss under yesterday’s low of 2594 as an exit strategy as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time, however for the bullish momentum to continue prices have to break November 18th high of 2694 in my opinion. Last Friday’s Commitment of Traders data (COT) showed that funds boosted their long cocoa positions by 15,528 contracts in the week ended Nov 19th to a 5-year high of 60,818 contracts which could provide fuel for long liquidation pressure.

Fundamentally speaking reduced output from Ghana, the world’s 2nd largest cocoa producer is supportive for cocoa prices after the Ghana Cocoa Board on Sep 13th cut its Ghana 2019/20 cocoa production estimate to a 3-year low of 800,000 MT from a previous estimate of 950,000 due to an outbreak of the swollen shoot cocoa disease that has affected about 16% of Ghana’s cocoa crop.

TREND: HIGHER

CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

This article was written by Michael Seery (CTA—COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR) www.seeryfutures.com