ASX 200 Forecast: Miners Lead Rally as US–Iran Diplomacy Offsets Rate Jitters

The wall of worry just got a little easier to climb. Despite the US Navy maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports and shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz remaining a ghost of their former selves, the market is sniffing out an exit strategy. We’ve heard chatter that backchannel talks have produced actual progress on several sticking points. President Trump and Iranian officials are reportedly eyeing Pakistan for a restart this week. It’s a fragile hope, but in this tape, hope is a powerful drug. The crude oil price is hovering below $100 on the news, which took the immediate heat off the inflation trade and allowed the ASX 200 to edge higher.

Labor Market Resilience Tested as Unemployment Looms

Domestic data is the next big hurdle. Looking at the Bureau of Statistics projections, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%. It’s a “neutral zone” reading that keeps the RBA in a difficult bind. A top central banker mentioned on Monday that they aren’t convinced rates are yet at the level needed to kill off this war-driven inflation. If the print comes in hot, expect the higher-for-longer narrative to hammer rate-sensitive sectors like real estate.

Aussie Jobless Rate Forecast to Hold at 4.3%

Australian unemployment is projected to hold at 4.3% in April 2026, keeping the RBA in a hawkish bind. Source: TradingView

Weekly Supertrend Flips Bullish

The macro view is looking a lot cleaner than it did 2 to 3 weeks ago. We’ve officially seen a positive flip on the short-term Supertrend. Buyers didn’t just defend the 8,255–8,635 structural zone; they used it as a springboard. It’s a massive signal that the long-term escalator is still moving. We’re currently staring at 9,230 resistance. A weekly close above 9,000 confirms that the bears who bet on a geopolitical collapse are effectively trapped.

ASX 200 Reclaims the Weekly Supertrend Floor

The ASX 200 reclaims the short-term weekly Supertrend, with the long-term floor intact and 9,230 as the next ceiling. Source: TradingView

Daily 21-EMA Reclaim Fuels the Momentum

On the daily timeframe, the V-shaped recovery I was tracking has matured into a sustained trend. We cleared the 21-day EMA with authority. I love that the RSI is pushing past 60. It means we have plenty of room to run before exhausting.

Bulls Control the Tape Above the 21-EMA

Price reclaims the daily 21-EMA with RSI pushing past 60, leaving room before exhaustion. Source: TradingView

Renko Confirms the Structural Bid

Looking at the 11-Brick traditional Renko, the trend is undeniably positive. We’ve shattered the 500-SMA resistance that capped every single rally since late March. The Z-Score is stretching into positive territory, currently below 1, which confirms that buyers are paying up for exposure rather than waiting for pullbacks. There’s some consolidation when looking at the recent Supertrend flips. But the ASX 200 is preparing for its next move. Most likely higher. Mining giants BHP and Evolution Mining remain the structural anchors of this rally.

Micro-Structure Shows Support is Intact

The 11-brick Renko shows the 500-SMA acting as support, with the Z-Score confirming buyers are paying up. Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Neutral

Bias: Positive

Key Support Levels: 8,255, 8,635

Key Resistance Levels: 9,230

Medium-Term Path: I expect the ASX 200 to continue its grind toward the 9,230 resistance zone. The mining sector is providing a structural hedge that risk-off headlines can’t seem to break. As long as the diplomatic signals from Islamabad remain constructive and the daily 21-EMA holds, the path of least resistance is up. Watch China’s Q1 GDP release for the next major directional catalyst.