S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: Nvidia, Dell, and HP Drive Tech Stocks to New Highs

S&P 500 Hits Record as Nvidia Rallies 5% but Oil Threatens the Mood

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is up 0.47% Monday and trading at a new intraday record of 7617.66. The Nasdaq Composite is up 0.72% and sitting at a fresh high. The Dow is barely moving, up 14 points.

Nvidia is up 5% on the N1X processor announcement and carrying the technology sector. West Texas Intermediate crude oil is up roughly 6% to about $92 a barrel. Spot Brent crude oil is up 5% to around $95. Two completely different stories running at the same time. Tech is buying the AI expansion. Energy is pricing in a war premium. The S&P 500 is higher because Nvidia is outweighing the oil shock. That math does not work every day.

Nvidia Is Carrying the Whole Market

Nvidia’s 5% gain is doing most of the heavy lifting for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The N1X processor announcement at Computex gave the Street a new revenue story on top of the existing data center business. Dell Technologies and HP are both up over 8% on expectations they will manufacture PCs with the new chip.

The semiconductor space is split in half on the news. Intel is down more than 3%. Nvidia building a PC processor is a direct challenge to the business Intel has dominated for decades. Qualcomm is down 7%. Advanced Micro Devices is off over 1%. The winners are winning big and the losers are losing big. That kind of divergence inside one sector tells you the market is repricing competitive positioning in real time.

Software is having a strong day across the board. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF is up more than 5%. ServiceNow, Workday, Adobe, and Salesforce are all posting sizable moves. The strength in software alongside the Nvidia rally tells you investors are still willing to pay up for companies tied to AI spending. That trade has not gotten tired yet.

Stocks in the News

MGM Resorts is up 16% after Barry Diller’s People Inc submitted a buyout proposal at $48.30 per share in cash. That is the kind of premium that moves an entire sector and casino stocks are reacting.

Zoom Communications gained more than 11%. Anthropic, the artificial intelligence company where Zoom was an early investor, confidentially filed for an initial public offering. That filing reprices Zoom’s stake and gives investors a reason to look at the company differently.

Science Applications International jumped 16% on earnings and revenue that crushed estimates. Full-year guidance came in above the Street. Beat the numbers, raise the outlook, stock goes higher. That is the cleanest kind of rally.

Humana rose 8% after reaffirming its earnings guidance slightly above analyst expectations. In a market where healthcare has been inconsistent, holding guidance steady is enough to move the stock.

IBM is up 9% after Barclays initiated coverage with an overweight rating on the quantum computing thesis. Melius Research raised its price target on top of that. Two analyst actions on the same day are pushing the stock hard.

ISM Manufacturing Beats

The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 54 for May. The Street was looking for 53.2. April was lower. New orders jumped to 56.8. Imports rose to 53. Employment improved but stayed below the 50 growth threshold.

The prices-paid component eased slightly but remains elevated. Inflation pressure inside the manufacturing sector is not gone. It is still there and the Federal Reserve is watching it.

The report is good enough to tell you the economy is not rolling over. Business activity is expanding. Demand is healthy. That matters because it keeps the earnings story intact even while oil prices and geopolitical risk are creating noise on the other side.

Oil Surges on Strait of Hormuz

West Texas Intermediate crude oil is up roughly 6% to about $92 a barrel. Spot Brent crude oil is up 5% to around $95. Iranian state media reported that negotiations with the United States stalled and that Iran is moving to shut the Strait of Hormuz after Israeli military operations in Lebanon.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important oil shipping routes in the world. Any disruption to traffic through that waterway reprices global energy costs immediately. That is exactly what is happening today.

Daily S&P 500 (SPX) Technical Analysis

The main trend was reaffirmed earlier today with the new record high sitting at 7617.66 late in the session. Although the index is up eight sessions from the last main bottom at 7333.68, this particular leg of the rally can best be described as a grind. But you can’t argue with the string of higher-highs and higher-lows.

The key number to watch into the close is 7580.05. Finishing under this price will form a reversal top. It won’t be a change in trend, but it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction. The first break will be long-liquidation.

On the downside, the nearest support zone is 7475.67 to 7442.16. With the trend up, look for buyers to step in on the first test. If it fails to hold then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at 7333.68. Taking this out changes the main trend to down, setting up the possibility of a further break into the 50-day moving average at 7078.34.

The trend is strong and there is no resistance so it doesn’t make sense to try to pick a top. Besides, it takes time to actually form a top.

What to Watch

The S&P 500 is at a record but the close matters more than the high. A finish under 7580.05 forms a reversal top on the chart. That does not change the trend but it could trigger a 2 to 3 day correction that starts with long-liquidation. The nearest support zone is 7475.67 to 7442.16 and buyers are expected there because the trend is still up.

Nvidia and the AI trade are carrying the market past a 6% surge in West Texas Intermediate crude oil. That is impressive. It is also not sustainable if oil keeps climbing. The Strait of Hormuz headline is the risk. If that situation gets worse, energy costs go higher and the inflation argument comes back.

The ISM prices-paid component already shows that manufacturing inflation has not gone away. Add $95 Spot Brent crude oil on top of that and the Federal Reserve conversation shifts in a direction that is not friendly for equities.

The technology leadership is real. The economic data is supportive. The earnings story is intact. But the geopolitical risk just got repriced in one session and the market has to absorb that. Whether the S&P 500 holds this record or rolls over into a short correction depends on what comes out of the Middle East between now and the close.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.