ASX 300 Forecast: Bank Weakness Weighs as Tech and Healthcare Stocks Climb

ASX 200 Banks Drag Tech and Healthcare Stocks Buck the Sell-Off

Banks in the ASX 200 were leading the declines in the ASX 200 with Westpac down 2.26%, ANZ down 0.94%, NAB down 0.64%, and Macquarie down 0.37%. The only bank that was up was CBA (0.50%). So the RBA’s rate hike hit financials. Westpac had its own issues after softer than expected 1st half profit and margin concerns.

BHP and Rio were down as well but Newmount was up 0.92% and FMG was up 0.45%. So there were still some bids for gold and iron ore names. Some of the climbers were WiseTech (+5.22%), Xero (3.92%), Sigma Healthcare (3.18%), ResMed (2.11%) and Contact Energy (6.79%).

ASX 200 Heat Map Shows Banks Dragging Index Lower, While Tech, Energy, Utilities & Select Healthcare Provide Pockets of Green

ASX 200 Heat Map

Source: TradingView

RBA Rate Hike Keeps ASX 200 Choppy as Banks Feel the Pressure

The RBA raised rates to 4.35% to 4.10% which is a hawkish nudge for the markets. But the ASX 200 is still choppy in the short term. We all know the economics involved. Higher rates mean tightening financial conditions and raising debt-servicing costs. This would make traders less willing to pay up for long-duration growth, rate sensitive property names, consumer stocks, and parts of the banking sector.

Lower down the line we would see banks in the ASX 200 may get some margin support. But that benefit can get eaten up fast if arrears rise or loan demand cools. So the better pockets could still be miners, energy, healthcare, telcos, and utilities. This is so because they either carry defensive earnings profiles or have commodity linked support. Fundamental, the ASX 200 now needs stronger commodity leadership or cleaner inflation data to push higher with some conviction.

RBA Cash Rate Rises to 4.35% in May 2026

Bar Chart of Australia’s RBA interest rate decision from May 2025 to May 2026

Source: TradingView

ASX 200 Renko Rebound Signals Demand Returning Near 8,600 Support

The ASX 200 is spinning around the long-term 500-SMA, finding support around the 8,600 level. What’s positive to note is that the Supertrend flipped green. The Z-Score SMA is also trending higher which is an indication that demand is creeping back into the Index. So we may be seeing the end of this pullback that was happening to the ASX 200 over the last couple of weeks.

ASX 200 15-Brick Renko Bouncing Around the Long-Term SMA

ASX 200 Renko with 15-Brick Size

Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Bearish

Bias: Negative

Support Levels: 8,255

Resistance Levels: 8,915, 9,230

Medium Term Path: The ASX 200 Index still looks vulnerable in the medium term. The Index has to rally pass 8,915 with some level of conviction before the setup starts to look healthier. It’s going to be a bit choppy to begin with but once we get over 8,915, it will open the door toward 9,230.