Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Bearish Pressure Targets Key Support Zones

Bearish Continuation Sets Tone

Gold took a rest on Tuesday and consolidated inside the range from Monday. That follows a bearish continuation signal that triggered on Monday, resulting in a new retracement low of $4,501. Resistance near the falling 10-day moving average was confirmed before the decline, as seen by the day’s lower daily high of $4,639. That was the second day of a successful test of resistance near the 10-day average, and it reflects continued downward pressure in the price of gold. It shows that sellers remain in control. Therefore, the bearish decline is anticipated to continue toward lower potential support zones. This short-term consolidation therefore represents a pause within an ongoing bearish retracement phase.

Layered Support Structure Forms Below

The key lower target zone runs from approximately $4,402 to $4,295. That price zone begins with the spike low from early February and ends with the rising 200-day moving average. However, since the 200-day line has recently been aligned with the internal uptrend line, it takes on greater weight. The beginning of the rising bearish wedge formation is near $4,305 and it provides another key price zone to consider if approached. Together, these overlapping support structures create a layered demand zone where price reactions will be closely watched.

200-Day Moving Average as Structural Anchor

Regardless, the 200-day moving average was confirmed as support during the recent sharp selloff that generated a higher swing low at $4,099 in March. That was the first time it was tested since February 2024 and it should mark signs of support again, if approached. Moreover, it would not be surprising to see a bottom to the current retracement established without another test of support near the 200-day moving average. This reinforces the idea that intermediate support may emerge before the deeper structural zone is reached.

Trend Channel Convergence Emerges

In addition to bearish factors noted above, the 200-day moving average is approaching convergence with the midline of a large rising trend channel. The price zone around the midline was last recognized during the March bearish correction, while there was a bearish reaction from the top of the channel during the recent advance. This shift from upper-channel rejection to mid-channel alignment highlights a transition phase in trend structure.

Resistance Caps Recovery Attempts

Key near-term resistance is at the lower swing high of $4,660 from Friday and the falling 20-day moving average near $4,702. Therefore, short-term strength is anticipated to encounter resistance and lead to further weakness, at least until lower targets are encountered. As long as overhead resistance continues to cap rallies, the broader bias remains aligned with the downside targets outlined earlier.

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