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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: Retail Sales in Focus

By:
Bob Mason
Published: Mar 27, 2023, 22:48 UTC

It is a relatively quiet day for the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD. Australian retail sales figures will draw plenty of interest as banking sector jitters subside.

AUD/USD & NZD/USD tech analysis - FX Empire

In this article:

It is a busier morning for the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD pairs. Australian retail sales figures for February will be in focus this morning.

The RBA has signaled a possible pause on interest rate hikes to assess the impact of monetary policy tightening on consumers, inflation, and the economy. Lackluster sales figures would give the RBA greater incentive to hit pause at the April 4 meeting.

According to the RBA meeting minutes from March, board members agreed to consider hitting pause next month. Members cited concerns about the economy, with economic indicators coming in weaker than expected.

Significantly, weak numbers would allow the RBA to pause ahead of the Fed, shifting monetary policy divergence in favor of the dollar. On Monday, we discussed economic indicators showing economic disparities favoring the greenback. There would need to be increasing bets of a Fed pause in April and cracks in the US economy to ease downward pressure on the AUD/USD.

Later today, US consumer confidence figures will influence.

AUD/USD Price Action

The Aussie was down 0.01% to $0.66491. A range-bound start to the day saw the AUD/USD rise to an early high of $0.66510 before easing back.

AUD/USD holds steady.
AUDUSD 280323 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

The AUD/USD needs to move through the $0.6650 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6666. A move through the Monday high of $0.66657 would signal a bullish session. However, the Aussie Dollar would need better-than-expected retail sales figures to support a breakout day.

In case of a breakout session, the Aussie would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6682 and resistance at $0.67. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6714.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6634 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the AUD/USD pair should avoid sub-$0.66. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6618 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6586.

AUD/USD support levels in play below the pivot.
AUDUSD 280323 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send bearish signals. The AUD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.66708. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.6666) and the 50-day EMA ($0.66708) would give the bulls a run at R2 (0.6682) and the 100-day EMA ($0.66892). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.66708) would leave S1 ($0.6634) in play. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

EMAs are bearish.
AUDUSD 280323 4 Hourly Chart

NZD/USD Price Action

This morning, the Kiwi was flat at $0.61963. A mixed start to the day saw the NZD/USD rise to an early high of $0.61980 before easing back.

NZD/USD flat.
NZDUSD 280323 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

The NZD/USD needs to avoid a fall through the $0.6196 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6212. A move through the Monday high of $0.62118 would signal a bullish session. However, market risk sentiment will remain the key driver.

In the case of a breakout session, the Kiwi would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6227 and resistance at $0.6250. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6258.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6181 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the NZD/USD pair would likely avoid sub-$0.6150. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6165 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6134.

NZD/USD resistance levels in play above the pivot.
NZDUSD 280323 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs send bearish signals. The NZD/USD sits below the 100-day EMA, currently at $0.62128. The 50-day converged on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA would support a fall through S1 ($0.6181) to bring S2 ($0.6165) into view. However, a move through R1 ($0.6212) and the 100-day ($0.62128) and 50-day ($0.62130) EMAs would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.6227). A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

EMAs are bearish.
NZDUSD 280323 4 Hourly Chart

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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