AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Continues to Grind Back And Forth

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar has rallied a bit early on Monday as it looks like we are trying to rally Towards the 200 day EMA. The Australian dollar has been very noisy as of late and I think that probably continues to be the case going forward. We do have several high-level Australian announcements this week when it comes to inflation and employment and of course we have the Federal Reserve meeting so all of that could contribute to quite a bit of volatility. That volatility at this point in time I think is going to somewhat keep this market in a bit of a range.

The 0.6650 level above is an area that I think causes quite a bit of resistance, if we can break above there, then we can truly take on to the upside, perhaps the 69 level. Underneath we have the 0.65 level that I think will be of interest as support, assuming that we fall from here. If we do break down below there, then the 0.6450 level comes into the picture.

In general, this is a market that is going to be highly levered to the risk on or risk off behavior of traders around the world. So, keep that in mind. Ultimately, we are probably better off just looking at this through the prism of what the rest of the world is doing and what other risk assets are doing. For example, early on Monday, we have seen stocks do well and the Australian dollar has followed right along as a result. This is a correlation that I think we will continue to see, and therefore it is apparent that you need to look beyond just this chart. The market seems to move in tandem from a risk appetite perspective more than anything else.

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